📉 Bitcoin Bear Market Not Over? $50K “Real Bottom” Debate
BTC bounced nearly +3%, reclaiming $71K and sitting ~+20% off recent lows — but not everyone is buying the recovery.
⚠️ Some traders warn this move could be another bear-market bounce, not the bottom.
🧠 Key concerns from analysts:
📊 2022 Déjà Vu
• Analysts are comparing current price action to the 2022 bear market
• Similar volatility + failed rebounds are raising red flags
📉 Moving averages in focus
• 50-week EMA sits near $95.3K
• 200-week MA “cloud” support lies around $58K–$68K
🐻 Capitulation not seen yet
Independent analyst Filbfilb suggests a true bottom may only form below $50K, where:
• Most spot BTC ETF buyers would be underwater
• Average ETF cost basis is near $82K (per on-chain data)
📌 Why this matters:
In 2022, BTC initially bounced off the 200-week MA — only to break down weeks later.
Some analysts argue we may be seeing the same early retest phase now.
🧠 Balanced take:
A carbon copy of 2022 isn’t guaranteed — but until capitulation, confirmation, and structure improve, caution remains the dominant theme.
