Solana ($SOL ) is currently under heavy pressure, trading near $84.47 after dropping more than 4% in the last 24 hours. Market sentiment remains extremely weak, and SOL has now declined around 62% over the past four months, clearly reflecting a broader loss of confidence.
After hitting an intraday low of $67.31 on February 6, the recent rebound appears fragile and lacks strong bullish momentum. Buyers are struggling to regain control, and price action suggests the market is still in a defensive phase.
Technical & On-Chain Overview
From a structural perspective, SOL has broken below the key monthly support zone at $98–$100, which has now turned into a strong resistance area. This breakdown signals a shift in the higher-timeframe trend.
On-chain data shows mixed signals:
Around 1.07 million SOL has been withdrawn from exchanges, indicating some holders are moving to self-custody.
However, institutional interest is weakening, with approximately $11.9 million in net outflows from Solana ETFs, suggesting reduced confidence from larger players.
The RSI remains below 30, placing SOL in oversold territory. Still, with Extreme Fear dominating the market, oversold conditions alone are not enough to confirm a bottom, and premature long positions remain risky.
Market Reality Check
This move is not just a normal pullback—it represents a clear structural breakdown. The strong hype seen in 2025 has faded, and SOL is now in a phase where capital preservation matters more than aggressive risk-taking. Larger participants appear cautious, and liquidity-driven bounces should not be mistaken for trend reversals.
Possible Scenarios Ahead
Bearish Continuation:
If $78.50 fails to hold as local support, selling pressure could accelerate, opening the door for a deeper move toward the $50 psychological level.
Short-Term Relief Bounce:
For bulls to regain momentum, price must reclaim and hold $85–$86. Even then, any move toward $95–$100 is likely to face heavy selling and could act as an exit zone rather than a sustainable breakout.
Conclusion
At current levels, SOL remains high risk. The $78 support zone is critical—if it breaks on a weekly basis, downside volatility may increase significantly. Patience and confirmation are key in this market environment.
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