At the beginning of 2026, the Bitcoin market experienced intense fluctuations, with February 6th showcasing a 'Black Thursday' where the price plummeted to $60,033, marking a new low in 16 months, and a halving drop from the historical peak of $126,000 on October 12, 2025. The market capitalization evaporated by over a trillion. As of February 10, BTC slightly rebounded to around $67,000, with a 24-hour increase of 1.8%, but the weekly decline still reached 8.2%. The market is interwoven with fear and caution, and this crash is not accidental but rather the result of a resonance of multiple factors including regulation, macroeconomic conditions, capital, and cycles.
From the price trend, this round of decline began from the peak in October 2025 and accelerated downward after entering February. Key support levels of $70,000 and $65,000 were consecutively lost, causing a surge in the scale of liquidations across the entire network, leaving countless leveraged investors severely impacted. Behind the crash, the tightening of domestic regulatory policies is the core trigger: on February 6th, the central bank and eight other departments jointly issued a document clarifying that virtual currency-related businesses are considered illegal financial activities, completely prohibiting exchanges, trading, and intermediary services across the entire chain, and strictly forbidding domestic entities from issuing virtual currencies overseas, while incorporating RWA tokenization into strict regulation, effectively severing domestic participation channels and directly triggering concentrated market sell pressure.
The global macro environment is also under pressure, with fluctuations in the US tech sector, volatility in international gold prices, and rising expectations of tightening global liquidity, leading to a temporary failure of Bitcoin's 'digital gold' safe-haven narrative. Institutional capital flows have reversed, with signs of reduction in holdings from companies and institutions that previously made large purchases, compounded by excessive market leverage and overheated speculative sentiment; once the market reverses, panic selling accelerates the decline. In addition, after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, the cyclical dividends will gradually diminish, and the market will enter a valuation digestion phase, which also lays the groundwork for this pullback.
The current Bitcoin market shows a low-level fluctuation and repair pattern, with short-term support at $65,000 and resistance at $70,000. There is still a risk of a second downward probe during the weak rebound. From a long-term perspective, the scarcity and decentralization attributes of Bitcoin have not changed. Attempts by countries like the United States to include it in strategic reserves have also given its asset properties some recognition, but the nature of high volatility and high risk has never changed.
For investors, the current market needs to clearly recognize the three core risks:
Regulatory risk, a comprehensive ban on virtual currency-related businesses in the country, participation in transactions is not protected by law, and fund safety is not guaranteed;
Market risk, prices are greatly influenced by news and funds, short-term trends are difficult to predict, and leveraged trading is prone to liquidation losses;
Compliance risk, trading on overseas platforms also faces policy control, with risks of account freezing and asset loss.
After the sharp decline, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a logical reconstruction, with speculative bubbles gradually being squeezed out, and the industry is transforming towards compliance and rationality. However, regardless of market fluctuations, virtual currencies are never legal tender and do not possess the characteristics of legal currency and monetary attributes. For ordinary investors, staying away from virtual currency trading and adhering to legal and compliant investment channels is the core principle for avoiding risks and protecting assets.#美国科技基金净流 #美国伊朗对峙 #何时抄底？ $BTC
