Author of the news: Crypto Emergency
Co-founder of BitMEX Arthur Hayes proposed to co-founder of Multicoin Capital Kyle Samani to make a bet of $100,000 after Samani sharply criticized the Hyperliquid project and its native token HYPE. The dispute concerns whether HYPE can show better returns than any altcoin with a market capitalization above $1 billion chosen by Samani.
How the dispute arose
The reason was a post by Samani, in which he called Hyperliquid:
• "the concentration of all the worst in crypto,"
• a project with closed code,
• a platform that allegedly facilitates criminal activity,
• an initiative whose founder "left the country for development."
Hayes responded harshly:
"If HYPE is so bad, it won't be able to outperform any asset chosen by Samani in terms of returns from February 10 to July 31, 2026."
The loser, under Hayes' terms, will have to donate $100,000 to a charity chosen by the winner.
Some users called the amount "modest" for such figures, but the precedent itself sparked heated discussion. One commentator described the situation as "the prisoner's dilemma disguised as a muscle game."
Chances of victory: what the data says
According to CoinGecko, HYPE was trading around $31.76 at the time of publication.
The Bot Brain, analyzing protocol data, assessed the probability of victory for both sides. Despite Samani's criticism, it highlighted the strengths of Hyperliquid:
1. Transition to L1
The platform is evolving from a derivatives exchange to a full-fledged layer one blockchain.
2. Deflationary model
Proposals HIP-3 and HIP-4 introduce mechanisms for token buybacks and burning.
3. Synthetic stocks of Hyperliquid
plans to launch trading of tokenized stocks of Tesla and Nvidia, expanding the market.
4. High protocol yield
Hyperliquid generates about $90 million in fees per month, placing it among the most profitable protocols in the industry.
The main risk Brain identified was the recent unlocking of tokens worth $287 million (February 6), but even considering this, HYPE looks stronger than many altcoins with a market cap above $1 billion.
Polymarket is expected, but there is no contract yet Users are awaiting the appearance of a corresponding market on Polymarket; however, the contract has not yet been opened. There are already price predictions for HYPE in 2026: the probability of breaking the ATH above $60 is estimated at 43%.
Will there be a dispute?
Despite the public challenge, Kyle Samani has not yet officially accepted Hayes' offer. Therefore, the bet remains in question.
