📝 Preface: When I realized that I am just a speck of dust on the chessboard
Last night I couldn't sleep again.
Staring at the intertwining red and green candlesticks, I suddenly recalled that saying: no matter how talented you are, can you surpass Powell's hawkish stance, Trump's calls, Musk's market manipulation, Zhao Changpeng's tweets, Wall Street's sell-off, MicroStrategy's reckless gambling, He Yi's support, institutional buying, whale selling, drawing your own candlesticks, the blood-sucking of US stocks, on-chain failures, the three ministries' announcements, and that phrase from Sun: 'Is the big one coming?'
This is not a joke; this is the realization I gained after three years of struggling in the crypto market, exchanged for real money.
💼 Powell's hawkish moment: your technical analysis is a joke.
Scene reproduction
On a certain deep night in 2024, I just completed perfect technical analysis: triple bottom pattern, MACD golden cross, RSI oversold rebound, volume moderately expanded—a textbook-level bullish signal.
I confidently opened a 5x leveraged long position, with the stop loss set 2% below the support level.
At 2 a.m., Powell said at the Jackson Hole meeting: "We will keep interest rates high for a longer time."
In 15 minutes, BTC fell from 29500 to 27800.
My position was blown up in seconds.
💭 The dilemma of retail investors
You study K-line patterns? A single word from him can rewrite the entire market sentiment.
You see RSI oversold? The Fed's policy shift can render all technical indicators ineffective.
Do you think you have mastered the market rules? Sorry, the premise of rules is "other conditions remain unchanged"—but in the crypto market, other conditions are never unchanged.
🎤 Trump's "strategic reserves": politics is worth more than consensus
That night that drove everyone crazy
Do you remember that night when Trump said at the Nashville Bitcoin conference "to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve"?
At that time, I was hesitating whether to take profits—after all, it had already risen by 20%, and technically there was pressure for a pullback.
Then he said that sentence.
The market exploded instantly. BTC shot from 62000 to 68000; I watched my supposed 20% profit turn into 50%, and then out of greed, I didn't sell, leaving only 15% in the pullback.
🎭 The magic of political narratives
Trump's calls are not because he understands technology, but because he represents "power".
When politicians endorse cryptocurrencies, they bring not technological progress, but narrative legitimization—this is worth more than any white paper.
But the problem is: this narrative can reverse at any time. Today he says he will establish reserves, tomorrow he may change his mind due to some advisor's suggestion. And we retail investors will always be the last to know.
🚀 Musk's Twitter empire: managing market value with 280 characters
The roller coaster of DOGE
In 2021, Musk tweeted: a meme picture of a Shiba Inu.
Dogecoin surged by 40%.
Then he went on (Saturday Night Live) and said DOGE is "hustle" (a scam), and the market instantly plummeted by 35%.
I have seen too many people go bankrupt because of a tweet from Musk, and too many people miss the opportunity for financial freedom because they saw the news 5 seconds late.
⚡ You are always one step behind
When Musk tweets, Wall Street's algorithmic trading system has already completed building positions.
When you see the news and are ready to rush in, the smart money is already preparing to offload.
You think you are surfing, but you are just the beach being hit by the waves.
🔑 A tweet from Zhao Changpeng: the influence of the Binance empire
"SAFU"'s double-edged sword
CZ's every word on Twitter is worth a fortune.
He said a certain project is "interesting", and that project's token can rise by 30%.
He said to "Build", and the market sentiment immediately warmed up.
But he can also say "We will delist" to make a project go to zero completely.
🏛️ The power of centralized exchanges
We shout "decentralization", but in the end, we still have to look at Binance's face.
Listing coins? Look at Binance.
Liquidity? Look at Binance.
Market confidence? Still look at Binance.
This is the biggest irony in the crypto world: we trade decentralized assets on a centralized platform.
💰 The art of Wall Street's market smashing: textbook-level shorting
The devil's moment of CME futures
Every time CME Bitcoin futures approach expiration, the market always experiences a magical drop.
Coincidence? I would rather believe this is systemic manipulation.
Wall Street has turned the crypto market into their ATM with derivatives:
Building massive short positions in the futures market
Dumping heavily in the spot market, creating panic
Triggering retail stop losses, causing chain liquidations
Low position replenishment, perfect harvesting
📊 Your stop-loss order is their prey
Are you setting a stop loss for risk control?
Sorry, your stop-loss position has long been analyzed by big data.
What large funds love to do most is to accurately smash the price into the stop-loss dense area of retail investors, triggering a large number of liquidations, and then buying low in the panic.
🧠 MicroStrategy's "faith recharge": Saylor's brainless all-in
That crazy man
Michael Saylor may be the craziest Bitcoin believer in the world.
He turned the company into a Bitcoin buying machine, borrowing to buy coins, issuing bonds to buy coins, mortgaging to buy coins—every textbook would tell you this is suicidal behavior.
But he succeeded.
💎 The power of belief
Every time the market panics, Saylor will come out and announce "bought 2000 BTC again".
This sends a signal to the market: institutions are still accumulating, retail investors, why panic?
But the problem is: what if Saylor doesn't buy? Or worse, what if he starts selling?
We small retail investors have to wait several days to see their operational announcements in financial reports.
👑 He Yi's platform: the endorsement value of Binance's princess
The power of a single sentence
He Yi tweeted: "This project team is very reliable."
The next day, the project was listed on Binance.
The price of coins surged by 500%.
🎪 The paradox of centralized endorsement
We hate centralization, but we need centralized endorsements to build trust.
He Yi's platform is essentially an extension of Binance's credit—and this kind of credit has become the most scarce resource in a decentralized world.
But this also means: once Binance has an issue, the entire ecosystem will collapse.
🐋 Institutional pumping and whale offloading: you are always at the bottom of the food chain
Perfect cooperation
I have seen the tricks of institutional pumping too many times:
Accumulation phase: low-level sideways, retail investors panic and cut losses
Pump phase: rapid rise, creating FOMO sentiment
Distribution phase: high-level oscillation, letting retail investors take over
Dump phase: rapid decline, harvesting leveraged longs
And we retail investors:
Cutting losses when accumulating
Chasing highs when pumping
Holding firm when distributing
Being liquidated when dumping
📉 The truth of on-chain data
Are the whale addresses starting to transfer coins?
By the time you see this news, they have already finished offloading.
Are institutions starting to build positions?
By the time you hear this news, the price has already risen by 30%.
Information asymmetry is always the biggest enemy of retail investors.
🎨 Drawing K-lines yourself: the art of market value management
Those "magical" trends
Have you ever seen this kind of K-line:
The morning surge of 3% attracted attention
The afternoon was a sideways consolidation, creating a feeling of "ready to go"
The tail end surged another 3%, forming a "breakthrough" pattern
The next day opened high and fell low, starting to offload
This is not formed naturally by the market; this is designed by professional teams.
🖌️ The trap of technical analysis
When you are studying the "head and shoulders" or "double bottom pattern", the market makers are studying "what patterns retail investors like to see".
Then they will show you.
You think you are using technical analysis to predict the market, but in fact, you are just watching the script performance of the market makers.
💸 US stocks suck blood: the chain reaction of capital flows
Intermarket linkage
NASDAQ down 2%, Bitcoin down 5%.
S&P 500 down 1%, altcoins down 10%.
This is not a coincidence; it is the interconnected effect of risk assets.
🌍 The game of global liquidity
The crypto market is no longer an independent market.
When US stocks fall, capital withdraws from the crypto market.
When US Treasury yields rise, BTC loses its attractiveness.
Once the dollar strengthens, all risk assets suffer.
You think you are trading coins, but in fact, you are betting on the Fed's policies.
⚠️ On-chain malfunction: the dark humor of technical collapse
Those "coincidence" downtimes
Every time the market surges or crashes, exchanges often "coincidentally" go down.
You want to stop loss? Sorry, system maintenance.
You want to bottom fish? Sorry, network congestion.
You want to withdraw coins? Sorry, on-chain malfunction.
🔧 Centralized vulnerability
Decentralized blockchain, running on centralized exchanges.
It's like putting a Ferrari engine on a tractor chassis—looks flashy, but you'll know the problem when it runs.
📜 The three ministries issued a document: The sword of Damocles of policy risk
The announcement that night
On May 18, 2021, the three ministries issued a document to crack down on virtual currency trading.
Overnight, all exchanges expelled users from the mainland.
The assets of countless people are frozen in exchanges.
🏛️ Policy risk always exists
You think VPN can solve the problem?
You think overseas exchanges are safe?
Policy risk is the fundamental risk of the crypto market—and this risk cannot be predicted by any technical analysis or fundamental analysis.
🎭 Sun Yuchen's "something big is coming": the highest realm of cutting leeks
Classic rhetoric
Every time the market is bleak, Sun Yuchen will say: "Something big is coming."
Then:
Either a boring cooperation announcement
Either a project that has already cooled down is restarted
Either simply nothing
But the retail investors always believe.
🎪 The ultimate of information asymmetry
The most powerful thing about Sun Yuchen is not that he can pump, but that he can control expectations.
He gives you hope, making you reluctant to sell.
He creates suspense, making you reluctant to leave.
Then at the moment you expect the most, he will gently cut a knife.
🌅 Epilogue: The survival strategy of retail investors
As I write this, you may ask: Are we still playing?
My answer is: play, but recognize reality.
💡 A few suggestions
Don't go against the big shots: when you see Musk tweet, first look at the direction, don't think "this is a false breakout"
Accept information asymmetry: you will never be faster than institutions, so don't think about beating them to the punch
Control your position: never go all in, never use high leverage—staying alive is the most important
Learn to cut losses: admitting mistakes is not shameful, holding a position to the point of liquidation is shameful
Be a friend of time: the short term is a casino, the long term is investment
🎯 The most important thing: recognize your own position
We are not whales; we do not have the ability to manipulate the market.
We are not institutions; we do not have information advantages.
We are not policymakers; we do not have the authority to interpret the rules.
We are just ordinary retail investors trying to survive in the game of giants.
But this does not mean we should give up.
On the contrary, it is precisely because we know our limitations that we can live longer.
✍️ Written at the end
No matter how talented you are, you cannot surpass these big shots.
But talent is not the only standard for survival in the crypto space.
Surviving is more important than anything.
While others blow up due to blind confidence, you are still in the market.
When the next bull market arrives, you still have chips.
That's enough.
The crypto market does not believe in tears, only in survivors.
Source | Author: @wang_xiaolou
