Leaking Trump's 2026 market plan causes controversy
In recent weeks, the global financial market has started to spread a scenario believed to be the "2026 market plan" of U.S. President Donald Trump. Contrary to the popular expectation that the market will rise sharply right from the beginning of 2026, this scenario suggests that the early part of the year may witness a deep correction, before entering a period of easing and a strong recovery towards the end of the year.
If this scenario becomes reality, both the stock and crypto markets may have to undergo a highly volatile phase, with many risks but also considerable opportunities for long-term investors.
Part 1: The weakening US economy and the risk of market correction
According to the circulated scenario, the US economy is currently showing many clear signs of weakening. The rate of layoffs is increasing, the number of bankruptcies is gradually rising, while bad debts and overdue credits are starting to accumulate in the financial system.
The real estate market is also not immune to this trend. The demand for home buying has dropped sharply, while the number of sellers far exceeds the number of buyers, putting significant pressure on housing prices and overall market liquidity.
In this context, the likelihood of a correction in the US stock market within the next 2-3 months is considered significant, with a scale comparable to the early 2025 phase. Some cautious scenarios suggest that the S&P 500 index could drop by 10-15%, while the Nasdaq, which focuses on many tech stocks, could drop even deeper, by 15-20%.
As crypto has an increasingly large correlation with the stock market, especially risky assets, the likelihood that the cryptocurrency market faces strong selling pressure, even falling into a state of capitulation, is hard to avoid.
Part 2: Who will be blamed when the market collapses?
During the market downturn, Trump is expected to focus on criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as the Supreme Court if rulings concerning tariffs go against his interests.
Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chairman will end in May 2026. This creates a favorable 'political inflection point' for Trump to hold Powell accountable for not lowering interest rates in time, maintaining a tight monetary policy, and not injecting more liquidity when the market weakens.
The ultimate goal of this move is to prevent Powell from continuing to have influence in the Fed's Board of Governors after leaving the Chair position, thereby paving the way for a figure more aligned with Trump to take control of monetary policy.
Part 3: Monetary easing and a new wave of liquidity
The scenario suggests that when Kevin Warsh - seen as a potential candidate for Fed Chair, monetary policy will quickly reverse towards easing.
Warsh has hinted at the possibility of using strong tools like yield curve control, thereby suppressing long-term bond yields and reducing borrowing costs across the economy. As borrowing costs decrease, liquidity will return to the market, driving asset prices up.
Alongside monetary policy, many other factors supporting liquidity may also emerge, including the ability to pay a 'tariff dividend' of about 2,000 USD, large-scale tax cut packages, and the passage of more crypto-friendly laws like the CLARITY Act.
Part 4: The market and the 2026 midterm elections
The midterm elections in the US are expected to take place in Q4 2026. According to data from prediction markets, the Republican Party is currently at a disadvantage. In this context, boosting financial market growth and distributing more money to the public could become a key strategy to improve approval ratings.
History shows that markets often quickly 'forget' macro issues when asset prices start to rise again. Support packages and tax cuts may also help improve the profits of small businesses, thereby creating a positive spillover effect on the economy.
In summary, the circulated scenario describes a roadmap consisting of three distinct phases: early 2026 will be a phase of correction and blame, mid-year will see a leadership change at the Fed and policy easing, and the end of the year will witness a strong recovery heading towards the elections.
This means that the coming months may be a challenging period for the market. However, if liquidity truly returns, the accumulation phase after the correction could open up significant opportunities for both stocks and crypto in the second half of 2026.