This decline may not be a bear market, but rather an epic deleveraging.
In early February, Bitcoin (BTC) crashed from around 79,000 dollars to a low of 59,800, leading the market to think that 'the bear market is back.' But if you only look at the price, you might misjudge this market movement.
The key is not how much it dropped, but how it dropped.
📉 Within a week, the futures open interest fell from 61 billion dollars to 49 billion, and the peak leverage has been reduced by over 45% compared to October 2025.
This is not a panic sell-off, but a proactive reduction of positions and systematic deleveraging.
⚠️ Even more extreme is the speed:
On February 5, the Z-score of BTC's single-day drop reached -6σ, one of the fastest crashes in crypto history;
Prices once deviated from the 200-day moving average by -2.88σ — not even FTX and the pandemic were this exaggerated.
But interestingly:
📊 The pullback is deep, but the volatility is not high.
The actual 90-day volatility is only 38, about half of the 2022 bear market.
What does this mean? Most of the downside risks have already been digested in the deleveraging.
Derivatives are also 'telling the truth':
✔️ The funding rate is comprehensively compressed, ETH / SOL even turning negative
✔️ BTC RSI fell below 21, a historically significant oversold level
✔️ Retail trading volume has decreased by about 30% compared to the end of last year
This is more like:
No confidence, no liquidity, but also no systemic collapse.
Miner selling pressure, macro risks, and the retreat of AI narratives are all present, but the underlying is not broken:
Stablecoins are expanding, institutions are tokenizing, on-chain operations are normal.
This is a macro-driven bear phase, not a technical death.
🔍 How will it look next?
60,000 dollars is the critical life-and-death line.
Holding → Entering a consolidation phase
Breaking → Retesting the 200-week moving average
The conclusion is only one sentence:
This round of decline looks more like a 'cleaning up of leverage,' rather than the end of a bull market.
The market is not short of stories; what is lacking is —
Who can survive until the next round when others are most pessimistic.$BTC $ETH $SOL
