The question many traders are asking right now: Has Dogecoin ($DOGE ) finally found its bear market bottom? Crypto analyst VisionPulsed isn’t convinced at least not yet.

Same Play, Different Crowd

VisionPulsed argues that crypto markets have a habit of repeating the same patterns, largely because each cycle brings in a new wave of participants who believe “this time is different.” According to him, the persistence of bullish sentiment even as conditions weaken is exactly why bearish structures can continue longer than expected.

He also highlighted how crypto content incentives can skew sentiment, with many creators staying bullish to maintain engagement, even when broader market signals deteriorate.

“The fact that people are still bullish is why the market can do the same thing again and again. Humans repeat the same mistakes.”

📊 Momentum Signals Matter

On timing, VisionPulsed pointed to momentum indicators, particularly Bitcoin’s Stochastic RSI across multiple timeframes, which he views as a proxy for the broader crypto market including DOGE.

Historically, rallies tend to stall or fade once Stoch RSI reaches overbought conditions. He warned that what looks like a relief bounce could simply be a reset before another leg down. In some cases, markets may even roll over without a clean overbought signal.

Beware Popular Narratives

He also pushed back against overreliance on widely cited catalysts like CME gaps, noting similar setups failed during past bear markets, including May 2022.

Capitulation Comes With a Shock

According to VisionPulsed, true market bottoms often align with a narrative shock a “black swan” event that traders later blame for the crash, even though the structure was already bearish. He referenced past examples like the Terra/Luna collapse as moments that coincided with major capitulation lows.

Bottom line:

DOGE may be closer to the end of its bear market than the beginning but without clear momentum confirmation and capitulation signals, calling the bottom too early remains risky.

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