🔍 Market Structure (4H)
Trend
Overall bearish to neutral.
Strong sell-off from ~783 → ~570.
Since the bounce, price is consolidating sideways between ~620–650.
Still below key moving averages, especially MA(25) and MA(99).
Moving Averages
MA(7): ~633 → price hovering right around it (no momentum).
MA(25): ~641 → acting as dynamic resistance.
MA(99): ~770 → confirms broader bearish trend.
Volume
Big volume spike on the dump → capitulation move.
Current volume is low → range / indecision phase.
RSI (6): ~47
Neutral zone.
No overbought or oversold conditions.
Confirms range-bound price action.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance
640–645 (MA25 + recent rejection zone)
660 (minor structure resistance)
680–685 (range high)
Support
620 (range support)
600 (psychological + structure)
570 (major swing low, last defense)
📈 Intraday Trading Signals (4H → lower TF execution)
✅ Scenario 1: Range Long (Higher Probability)
Bias: Buy near support, sell near resistance
Entry (Buy Zone)
628–620
Prefer confirmation on 15m/30m (bullish candle or RSI bounce)
Stop-Loss
Below 612
Conservative SL: 608
Aggressive SL: 615
Take-Profit Targets
TP1: 640
TP2: 652
TP3 (stretch): 665
Risk–Reward
~1:2 to 1:3 depending on exit
📌 Best setup while price stays below 650.
❌ Scenario 2: Range Short (Countertrend Scalps)
Bias: Sell rejection from resistance
Entry (Sell Zone)
642–648
Look for rejection wick / bearish close on lower TF
Stop-Loss
Above 655
Take-Profit Targets
TP1: 630
TP2: 620
TP3: 605 (only if momentum increases)
⚠️ Shorts are scalps only, not holds.
🚀 Scenario 3: Bullish Breakout (Lower Probability, High Momentum)
Condition
4H close above 650 with volume
Entry
650–655 retest
Stop-Loss
Below 640
Take-Profit Targets
TP1: 670
TP2: 690
TP3: 710
📌 Only valid if volume expands — otherwise it’s a fakeout.
🧠 Trading Plan Summary
Setup
Direction
Entry
SL
TP
Range Long
Buy
628–620
<612
640 → 665
Range Short
Sell
642–648
>655
630 → 620
Breakout
Buy
650 retest
<640
670 → 710
⚠️ Risk Notes
Market is still bearish on higher TFs → avoid overleveraging.
Best strategy right now: range trading + quick profits.
If 570 breaks, expect strong continuation down.
If you want, I can:
Refine this for 15m scalping
Add position sizing
Build a low-risk/high-RR setup
Or convert this into a copy-paste trading plan
