Short-term traders react.
Long-term holders (LTHs) shape market cycles.
If you understand what long-term holders are doing, you understand where the market is in the cycle.
Who Are Long-Term Holders?
Long-term holders are wallets that:
Hold coins 150+ days (commonly used threshold)
Rarely react to short-term price noise
Accumulate during fear and sell into strength
๐ They are the strongest hands in the market.
Why LTH Behavior Matters
โ They control a large portion of supply
โ Their actions define market bottoms & tops
โ They move before major trends
๐ Price follows long-term conviction.
Key Long-Term Holder Metrics to Watch
1๏ธโฃ LTH Supply
What it shows:
Total coins held by long-term holders
LTH supply rising โ accumulation phase
LTH supply falling โ distribution phase
๐ Strong hands accumulating = foundation forming.
2๏ธโฃ LTH Net Position Change
What it shows:
Whether long-term holders are adding or reducing positions
Positive โ confidence & accumulation
Negative โ profit-taking / late-cycle behavior
๐ Distribution starts quietly.
3๏ธโฃ LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
What it shows:
Are long-term holders selling at profit or loss?
SOPR > 1 โ selling in profit
SOPR < 1 โ capitulation / stress
๐ Markets bottom when strong hands feel pain.
4๏ธโฃ Coin Dormancy / Coin Days Destroyed
What it shows:
Old coins suddenly moving
Spikes โ macro trend changes
Flat โ healthy holding behavior
๐ Dormant coins moving = attention required.
How LTH Behavior Signals Market Phases
Accumulation Phase
โ Price low
โ Fear high
โ LTH supply rising
๐ Best long-term opportunities form here.
Expansion Phase
โ Price trending up
โ LTHs hold
โ Retail returns
๐ Trends strengthen.
Distribution Phase
โ Price high
โ LTH selling into strength
โ Inflows increase
๐ Risk increases.
Capitulation Phase
โ Panic selling
โ LTH SOPR < 1
โ Sentiment extreme fear
๐ Cycle resets.
LTH Behavior vs Short-Term Traders
Long-Term Holders
Short-Term Traders
Accumulate fear
React emotionally
Sell into hype
Buy hype
Define cycles
Create noise
๐ Follow the patient money.
How Traders Should Use LTH Data
โ For macro bias
โ For cycle timing
โ To avoid buying tops
โ To build confidence during fear
๐ LTH data is slow but powerful.
Common Mistakes
โ Using LTH data for scalping
โ Ignoring price structure
โ Overreacting to small changes
๐ Zoom out.
Professional Trader Mindset
โI trade with the long-term holders, not against them.โ
๐ Cycles reward patience.
Final Thoughts
Long-term holders donโt chase price โ
price eventually follows them.
If you want to trade smarter: โ watch supply
โ watch conviction
โ watch patience
๐ Strong hands build bottoms. Weak hands buy tops.