Bitcoin has completed its growth cycle and formed a distribution peak around the 110k–120k range.
Then comes a strong breakdown, piercing through the structure confirming the HTF trend change.
The current deep decline is not a normal correction but an HTF Liquidity Sweep
-Sweeping all long-term buying liquidity
-Trigger the holder's stop-loss & long leverage
This is typical behavior of Smart Money after the distribution phase.
Current price range 69k
Prices are in the middle of a markdown phase, not yet touching the main reversal zone.
NOT a safe buying area to hold.
Short-term rebounds, if any, are only pullbacks in the HTF downtrend.
Bitcoin's bearish scenario
-Further decrease creates a reasonable Market Reversal target: 45k – 55k
-This is the old HTF demand zone, where Smart Money has the potential to absorb.
-Expect strong volatility, many fake breakdowns, and long wicks, with bad news appearing frequently.
Only when a clear reversal structure appears in this area should one consider Long swing or DCA.
Bitcoin's accumulation scenario
-After creating a bottom: prices move sideways for a long time and with a wide range, causing discomfort, sweeping SL at both ends.
-The time is about a few months, this is the stage where the patient wins, and the FOMO loses.
Bitcoin's bullish scenario
-When accumulation is complete: Break range accumulation, volume increases, Higher High - Higher Low structure returns.
-Long-term target according to the chart: 120k – 140k
-This is the easy upward wave for holders and trend followers.
Action strategy
-No all-in, no FOMO at 68k.
-Prioritize shorting during the rebound, only long scalp when there is clear confirmation on lower time frames.
-Wait for 40k–50k to buy spot, DCA in parts, do not buy all at once.
Bitcoin 68k looks fine, but if you read the weekly chart correctly, this is not the bottom.
The previous upcycle has ended with a clear distribution phase. Afterwards, there was a structure break and a direct drop, typical of Smart Money pulling out, while retail remains hopeful. Recent rebounds are just technical rebounds in the HTF downtrend, not signs of a healthy market.
The biggest problem right now is psychology. Prices are not dropping further, so many people are starting to believe the bottom is in. However, the market often does not give a bottom when the majority is still hopeful. A bottom only appears when
Bad news keeps coming.
Spot holders are starting to get tired.
And no one wants to buy anymore.
The reasonable price range for the market to truly reverse still lies lower, where liquidity is sufficiently swept and a clear reversal structure appears. Before that happens, all-in or holding with faith is just putting oneself at risk.
This phase is not for FOMO.
It is for those who hold money, maintain discipline, and wait for the market to confirm.
As long as you still have capital before the upward wave returns, that is already part of success.
