Solana (SOL) has experienced a strong downturn, losing 38% of its value in the past 30 days and hitting a two-year low of $67 on Friday. According to many analysts' assessments, this downtrend is not over for this seventh-ranked cryptocurrency, and the price target could go as low as $30.
The SOL/USD chart weekly | Source: Coitelegraph/ TradingView
Solana is targeting $42 after confirming a downturn
Since the cycle peak of about $295 in January 2025, SOL's price has lost more than 72% of its value. During this process, its price has confirmed a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern across multiple time frames.
Cryptocurrency analyst Bitcoinsensus shared a chart showing that SOL confirms a head and shoulders pattern, hinting at a potential price drop. "Solana has confirmed the drop from this Head & Shoulders pattern," Bitcoinsensus said in a post on Monday on X, adding:
"The target could be as low as $50 per SOL."
The SOL/USD chart weekly | Source: X/Bitcoinsensus
Analyst Nextiscrypto also agrees with this view, stating, "This is a classic head and shoulders pattern with a measured move target of $45." However, some other analysts believe that the price could drop even lower.
The anonymous analyst "Shitpoastin" suggests that Solana's price has also formed a "giant head and shoulders" pattern on the monthly chart over two years, "nothing but air until $30." The two-day candlestick chart shows that SOL's price has dropped below the neckline of the H&S at $120 on January 30.
Source: X/Shitpoastin
The measurement target of the H&S model, calculated by adding the height of the head from the drop point, is $57, representing a 32% decrease from the current level.
The SOL/USD two-day chart | Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView
The MVRV price band of Solana offers hope for a bottom at $75
The drop in SOL's price last week was halted by support from the lowest boundary of the extreme MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) price band, currently at $75. These bands indicate when SOL is below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.
The extreme deviation price band of Solana MVRV | Source: Glassnode
History shows that SOL's price drops near or even below the lowest MVRV band before reaching a bottom. This includes the recovery in March 2022, when SOL's price increased by 87% in three weeks to $140 after testing the lowest MVRV band around $75.
However, Solana's association with the FTX collapse in November 2022 significantly caused the price to drop below this band, with an additional 70% decrease, hitting a low of around $7 in December of that year. Therefore, SOL's drop below $75 could trigger the next phase of the correction as seen in 2022, likely aligning with the H&S target.
https://coinphoton.com/lieu-solana-co-huong-toi-muc-50-do-la.html
