BTC at critical levels: what does on-chain and macro say?
Bitcoin is approaching a zone where strong decisions by major players have historically formed — and the data currently looks ambiguous.
— Current price: ~$70.8k
— Price 4 years ago: $44k → return of about +61%
— STH MVRV: -0.75 — lows since September 2022 (a sign of being oversold)
— Bull/Bear Index rose to 9.6 — extremely bullish sentiment in traditional markets, which is often interpreted as a counter-signal
Key levels (according to on-chain models):
— ~$102k — 200 DMA (long-term trend strength zone)
— ~$79k — True Mean Price
— ~$55k — Realized Price (global cycle support)
Negative MVRV indicates that short-term holders are realizing unrealized losses — such periods are often accompanied by capitulation and the transfer of coins to more patient investors.
At the same time, excessive optimism in the stock market is a classic environment where risk assets can face increased volatility.
— Loss of the zone around True Mean may accelerate selling pressure
— Overheated sentiment in macro sometimes precedes corrections
— Being oversold does not rule out a final "liquidity washout".
Not financial advice.
