Bitcoin Medium Timeframe Elliott Wave Outlook
There are two valid higher timeframe Elliott Wave counts for Bitcoin right now. Both explain the price action cleanly, but they point to very different paths ahead. What happens with structure from here will be critical.
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Primary Scenario
Ending Diagonal Top at $126k in October 2025
This is the count that best fits the traditional 4-year cycle narrative.
• Wave 5 completed as an Ending Diagonal, topping at $126k in October 2025
• Since that high, we have seen a clear 5 wave impulsive move down
• That move down is counted as an A Wave within a larger Zigzag correction
What this implies next
• A B Wave recovery is expected
• Target zone for this bounce is roughly $90k to $100k
• After the B Wave completes, a 5 wave impulsive C Wave lower should follow
• That C Wave is likely to bottom in Q3 or Q4 this year
Under this scenario, upside strength is corrective,.
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Alternate Scenario
Impulse Top at $109k in January 2025
This count breaks the classic 4-year cycle narrative but fits the structure extremely well.
• A clean 5 wave impulsive move from $15.5k to $109k
• That completed a full impulse sequence
• The following correction unfolded as an Expanded Flat
Expanded Flat structure
• A Wave: 3 waves down to $74k
• B Wave: 3 waves up to $126k
• C Wave: 5 wave impulsive decline to $60k
This completes the correction and finishes Intermediate Wave 2.
What this implies next
• The correction is already complete
• Bitcoin should now be starting a new impulsive Wave 3
• Wave 3 would target new all time highs, well beyond $126k
Under this scenario, weakness is already behind us and the next major move is impulsive to the upside.
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From this point forward, price structure will tell us which scenario is playing out.
• The Primary Count expects a 3 wave corrective move up toward $90k to $100k
• The Alternate Count expects a 5 wave impulsive move that pushes into new all time highs
