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Cointelegraph
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Is Solana headed to $50? These three charts show a textbook bear pattern
Solana’s SOL (SOL) has dropped 38% over the last 30 days, falling to a two-year low of $67 on Friday. Multiple analysts believe that the downside is not over for the seventh-placed cryptocurrency, with downward targets extending as low as $30.
Key takeaways:
Solana’s head-and-shoulders pattern targets a SOL price of $50 or lower.
MVRV bands point to a potential bottom, but support at $75 must hold.
SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: Coitelegraph/TradingView
Solana targets $42 after bearish confirmation
SOL price has already lost over 72% of its value since a cycle top of around $295 in January 2025. In doing so, its price confirmed a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on multiple time frames.
Related: Pump.fun moves deeper into trading infrastructure with Vyper acquisition
Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus shared a chart showing SOL validating a H&S pattern, hinting at more downside ahead.
“Solana has confirmed a breakdown from this macro Head & Shoulders pattern,” Bitcoinsensus said in a Monday post on X, adding:
“The target could be as low as $50 per $SOL.”
SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Bitcoinsensus
“This is a classic head and shoulders pattern with a measured move to $45,” analyst Nextiscrypto said about SOL’s two-week chart. But other analysts said the price can go even lower.
Pseudonymous analyst “Shitpoastin” said Solana’s price has also formed a “massive head and shoulders” pattern on the monthly chart over two years, “with nothing but air until $30.”
Source: X/Shitpoastin
The two-day candle chart, meanwhile, shows that SOL price had broken below the H&S neckline at $120 on Jan. 30.
SOL/USD two-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The measured target of the H&S pattern, calculated by adding the head’s height from the breakdown point, is $57, representing a 32% drop from the current level.
Solana’s MVRV bands give hope for a bottom at $75
SOL’s price crash last week was stopped by support from the lowest boundary of its MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands, currently at $75.
These bands show when SOL is below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.
Solana MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode
Historically, SOL prices drop to near or even below the lowest MVRV band before a bottom is reached.
That includes the March 2022 bounce, when the SOL price rose 87% within three weeks to $140 after testing the lowest MVRV deviation band around $75. A similar rebound occurred earlier in December 2020.
Solana’s association with the FTX crash in November 2022, however, saw a significant deviation below this band, with the price dropping another 70% and bottoming around $7 in December that year.
Therefore, SOL’s drop below $75 spark the next phase of the correction as seen in 2022, likely aligning with the H&S target.
Key takeaways:
Solana’s head-and-shoulders pattern targets a SOL price of $50 or lower.
MVRV bands point to a potential bottom, but support at $75 must hold.
SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: Coitelegraph/TradingView
Solana targets $42 after bearish confirmation
SOL price has already lost over 72% of its value since a cycle top of around $295 in January 2025. In doing so, its price confirmed a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on multiple time frames.
Related: Pump.fun moves deeper into trading infrastructure with Vyper acquisition
Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus shared a chart showing SOL validating a H&S pattern, hinting at more downside ahead.
“Solana has confirmed a breakdown from this macro Head & Shoulders pattern,” Bitcoinsensus said in a Monday post on X, adding:
“The target could be as low as $50 per $SOL.”
SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Bitcoinsensus
“This is a classic head and shoulders pattern with a measured move to $45,” analyst Nextiscrypto said about SOL’s two-week chart. But other analysts said the price can go even lower.
Pseudonymous analyst “Shitpoastin” said Solana’s price has also formed a “massive head and shoulders” pattern on the monthly chart over two years, “with nothing but air until $30.”
Source: X/Shitpoastin
The two-day candle chart, meanwhile, shows that SOL price had broken below the H&S neckline at $120 on Jan. 30.
SOL/USD two-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The measured target of the H&S pattern, calculated by adding the head’s height from the breakdown point, is $57, representing a 32% drop from the current level.
Solana’s MVRV bands give hope for a bottom at $75
SOL’s price crash last week was stopped by support from the lowest boundary of its MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands, currently at $75.
These bands show when SOL is below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.
Solana MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode
Historically, SOL prices drop to near or even below the lowest MVRV band before a bottom is reached.
That includes the March 2022 bounce, when the SOL price rose 87% within three weeks to $140 after testing the lowest MVRV deviation band around $75. A similar rebound occurred earlier in December 2020.
Solana’s association with the FTX crash in November 2022, however, saw a significant deviation below this band, with the price dropping another 70% and bottoming around $7 in December that year.
Therefore, SOL’s drop below $75 spark the next phase of the correction as seen in 2022, likely aligning with the H&S target.
