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🔥Is the Federal Reserve's rate cut storm approaching? Employment collapse + stubborn inflation, the global market holds its breath waiting for the 'life-and-death judgment'!

The global financial circle is closely watching every move of the Federal Reserve! San Francisco Fed President Daly made a significant statement: another 1-2 rate cuts are needed, pointing out that the U.S. labor market is 'deteriorating'. She warned: shrinking wages, difficulty in employment, soaring unemployment rates among recent graduates, and even parents are complaining that 'children can't find jobs'—this is not just data, but an alarm! Vice Chairman Jefferson also issued an urgent warning: the job market may 'suddenly stall'! Dovish voices are rising, and expectations for rate cuts have surged.

But the suspense remains: to cut or not to cut? The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma—inflation is still above the 2% target, and rashly cutting rates may provoke a rebound; however, with employment fatigue intensifying, failure to act may lead to a recession. The policy balance is quietly shifting from 'controlling inflation' to 'protecting employment'.

The real showdown is next week! January non-farm payroll data has been postponed to the 11th due to the government shutdown, potentially revising down by up to a million jobs, exposing the true 'scars' of employment. The January core CPI data released on the same day is also crucial; if a 'weak employment + strong inflation' nightmare scenario occurs, the market may experience severe turbulence.

Currently, the market bets: the probability of a rate cut in March is only 23.2%, but July has become a high-probability event. Global investors are closely watching these two key data points, as they will directly set the tone for the rate cut pace.

This is not just an American issue! When the Federal Reserve acts, global assets will be revalued—U.S. dollars, gold, stock markets, and the RMB exchange rate will all be shaken. A massive liquidity shift is on the way, the eye of the storm has formed, are you ready?

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