📌Core Signals
1. Bitcoin short-term trends
Current price: $69,798 (7-day ↓9.23%) Market structure: Significant short-term price correction, but on-chain fundamentals are strong. The spot market is dominated by 'whale orders' accumulating, contrasting sharply with the retail-led futures market, which may be in a correction and bottoming phase.
Liquidation Warning: Long leverage is too high, funding rates are soaring. Beware if prices continue to dip further, as it may trigger a chain liquidation of crowded long positions (longs killing longs).
Liquidation Overview: The derivatives market is dominated by bullish sentiment, with funding rates increasing significantly within 24 hours (+121.79%), indicating that market leverage is concentrated on the long side. If prices continue to decline, liquidations will primarily involve long positions → crowded longs, beware of reverse hunting.
2. Operation window
Accumulation signal emerging: The MVRV ratio is currently 1.265, far below the historical top threshold of '3.7', indicating that the overall market valuation is healthy and not overheated, providing a valuation basis for medium to long-term arrangements.
Support zone reference: Continuous net outflow from exchange reserves (-3.88K BTC), supply tightening, combined with the occurrence of large whale buying in the spot market, has formed a potential strong support zone in the current price area.
Funding divergence: Prices are falling, but the funding rate and open contracts ($21.7B) remain high, indicating a divergence between the derivatives market and spot trends, with crowded long positions. This divergence usually signals intensified short-term volatility, and the market needs to correct excessive leverage.
3. Macroeconomic risks
Internal market risks: Be wary of the risk of price stagnation under high trading volume, which may enter the 'distribution phase'. Although the current trading volume bubble chart shows 'neutral', monitoring is still necessary.
Macroeconomic uncertainty: Global inflation data and interest rate policy trends of major central banks such as the Federal Reserve remain core variables affecting market risk appetite, and uncertainty still exists.
Regulatory dynamics: The global regulatory framework for crypto assets is still evolving, and any sudden regulatory policies may cause short-term shocks to market sentiment.
⚠ Must-watch events
【Continuous monitoring】 Exchange net flow: If the indicator turns from sustained net outflow to large-scale net inflow, it will be a clear alarm for increased selling pressure.
【Continuous monitoring】 Derivatives funding rate: If the rate can significantly cool down or turn negative, it means that market leverage risk is being released, which is conducive to forming a healthier trend.
【In the coming weeks】 US CPI and non-farm employment data: As key data influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions, its release will have a significant impact on the short-term volatility direction of BTC.
🚀 Minimal strategy pool
Aggressive investors: The risk of chasing long positions is currently high, and heavy positions are not recommended. One can wait for prices to pull back and stabilize, and for reversal signals to appear before trying small positions. Strict stop-loss settings are necessary to prevent the risk of leveraged longs being further liquidated.
Conservative investors: Currently, it is a relatively optimal window for building positions in batches in the spot market. Referring to MVRV valuation being reasonable and whale spot accumulation signals, one can adopt a dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips strategy, focusing on medium to long-term arrangements.
Short position holders: The short-term correction trend coexists with the medium to long-term bullish fundamentals, and the market's long-short game is intense. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and wait for clearer price direction or market leverage structure (such as a drop in funding rates) before entering the market.
