The following post-voting surveys indicate that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has the potential to win enough seats to control the House of Representatives. If this scenario occurs, the process of promoting reforms related to crypto and digital assets may progress significantly faster.
NHK estimates that the LDP could win approximately 274–328/465 seats, higher than the 233 seats needed to take control of the agenda. At that point, the government will have more room to adjust taxes, legal definitions, and market infrastructure development.
The early election is also seen as a test of Ms. Takaichi's leadership ability, in the context where voters are particularly concerned about:
Prolonged inflation
Real income decreases
Weakening yen
These factors compel Tokyo to seek new growth drivers, and digital assets are emerging as an option
What does Japan want to change?
The focus of the reform program includes:
Reducing crypto tax from a maximum of 55% to 20%
Reclassifying many digital assets into financial product categories like stocks/bonds → allowing for loss offset
Building a legal framework for stablecoin
Promoting the tokenization of securities
Paving the way for the possibility of a crypto ETF before 2028
If the LDP and its partners reach about 261 seats, they could control many important committees, helping laws and budgets move faster.
If approaching 300+ seats, the likelihood of overcoming barriers from the Senate will also be higher.
But will everything definitely accelerate?
Not necessarily
Some industry leaders believe that the support direction for Web3 has been established at the regulatory agency level. That is:
Fragmented parliament → reform continues, but slowly and requires negotiation.
Favorable parliament → the tax roadmap and stablecoin could be significantly shortened.
What investors are really concerned about
It's not just about whether there will be reforms, but when.
If the tax rate is 20% and the clear legal framework is delayed until 2027–2028, Japan risks missing part of the global capital flow cycle into digital assets.
Conversely, if progress is accelerated, the country could become a hub for:
Regulated stablecoin
Tokenized assets
On-chain financial infrastructure for institutional capital
The market tends to respond strongly to clarity in policy rather than promises. Therefore, the outcome of this election could serve as an important catalyst for the direction of crypto in Japan for many years to come.
#BNB #Bitcoin
