The potential partial shutdown of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) starting February 14, 2026, may have a noticeable but primarily short-term impact on the cryptocurrency market, increasing volatility and uncertainty. Based on an analysis of recent events and historical precedents, here are the key aspects:
Short-term negative effects
Increased volatility and falling prices: Government shutdowns often lead to a "sucking" of liquidity from the markets, as the US Treasury may replenish its main account (TGA), which reduces available liquidity. This particularly hits risk assets like cryptocurrencies hard. In the previous shutdown at the end of January 2026 (lasting 4 days), Bitcoin fell by 7-10%, and total liquidations in the crypto market exceeded $1.68 billion, with a predominance of long positions.1bbab7 Similarly, in 2025, the shutdown wiped $20 billion from the market in a day, contributing to the start of a bearish trend.1d38fb Traders expect that a repeat shutdown could push BTC below $67,000 or even to $60,000 in the event of a protracted situation.7b1b7177bfb8
Uncertainty in regulations: Although the shutdown concerns only DHS (including CISA - the cybersecurity agency), it may indirectly slow progress in crypto regulation. For example, delays in the SEC and CFTC's work on tokenized assets, DeFi, stablecoins, and ETFs, as overall political instability distracts from legislative initiatives like the CLARITY Act or market structure bill.8c21f98b3225 This exacerbates "Extreme Fear" among investors, causing capital outflows to safe havens like gold.032104
Market sentiment: Prediction platforms like Polymarket give a 66% probability of shutdown by February 14, which is already putting pressure on sentiment. The total market capitalization has stabilized around $2.7 trillion after the January decline, but a new crisis could trigger additional ETF outflows and a decline of 15-30%.b606dc364aaf In posts on X, traders warn of a "real macro risk," where altcoins will suffer more than BTC and ETH.20a29eb763d1
Possible positive or neutral scenarios
Rebound after resolution: If a compromise is found quickly (as in February 2026 after a 4-day shutdown), the market could bounce back. After Trump signed the bill on February 3, BTC jumped from $73,000 to $76,000, and the overall market stabilized.4a1f1d85adbe This removes one of the overhangs, allowing the focus to shift to other factors like Fed rates or Kevin Warsh's nomination.
Limited scope: The shutdown targeted only DHS, not a full shutdown (like in 2025 for 43 days). Critical functions, including immigration control, will continue to operate, minimizing systemic risks. However, a prolonged situation (more than 3-4 weeks) may increase pressure.ad7478
Overall, the crypto market is sensitive to US policy, and this shutdown will add pressure to an already thin liquidity. But if it turns out to be brief, the impact will be temporary. Keep an eye on the negotiations in Congress - the situation is changing rapidly.
