Is a government shutdown expected on February 14?
No, a complete shutdown of the U.S. government is not expected on February 14, 2026, but there is a serious risk of a partial shutdown specifically of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
On February 3, 2026, Congress and President Trump approved a spending package that:
fully funded almost all federal agencies until September 30, 2026 (the end of the fiscal year),
but for DHS introduced a temporary continuing resolution (temporary funding) only until February 13, 2026 (midnight).
Right now (as of early February 2026) there is an acute conflict between Republicans and Democrats regarding additional restrictions on ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) and CBP after incidents of force (including the deaths of American citizens in Minnesota). Democrats demand strict oversight and reforms, while Republicans and the White House call these demands unrealistic.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has directly warned that without compromise, DHS will begin a shutdown on February 14.
This will be a partial shutdown — only non-essential functions of DHS (including parts of TSA, FEMA, CISA, etc.), but critical immigration control and border service operations will continue thanks to separate funding from the previous major bill ("One Big Beautiful Bill Act").
Prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) on February 4-8 gave a probability of such a shutdown of ~50-67%.
The situation remains very tense, negotiations are tough, and many sources call the DHS shutdown on February 14 "increasingly likely." However, this will not be a full government shutdown (like in January 2026 for 4 days or a record 43 days in the fall of 2025), but rather targeted at DHS.
If no agreement is reached in the remaining days — yes, on February 14 (Valentine's Day) a partial DHS closure will begin. Stay tuned for news in the coming days, the situation can change at any moment.
