On Polymarket, the probabilities of Jesus' return by 2026 have doubled since January, rising from about 1.8% to 4%.
Results: this unusual contract shows a performance of +120%, outperforming BTC, which is down 18% since the beginning of the year.
Why is this happening?
• Predictive markets are low liquidity; a few purchases are enough to significantly move the probabilities, somewhat like low-cap cryptocurrencies.
• The contract is mainly seen as a meme, not as a serious forecast.
• During concerns about Bitcoin Macro (the advent of quantum computers, the Epstein affair, etc.), alternative markets capture attention.
How does it work?
• A "Yes" position pays $1 if the event occurs; otherwise, it is worth nothing.
• Currently, you need to pay $0.04 to bet on Yes, which corresponds to an approximately 4% probability.
• If Jesus Christ does not return before December 31, 2026, the bet settles on No.
Conclusion
This "Jesus Trade" remains an anecdote but illustrates one thing: In difficult times for Bitcoin, it is sometimes the strangest coins in crypto that show the best performance.
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