Binance Research | Feb 2026
Last week’s market selloff was driven more by liquidity stress than by deteriorating crypto fundamentals.
Following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, markets priced in aggressive Quantitative Tightening (QT) expectations. This triggered margin pressure across traditional portfolios, forcing investors to sell liquid assets first — and crypto, sitting at the end of the liquidity chain, took the biggest hit.
📉 What Happened?
Bitcoin broke key technical levels near $73K
Leverage remains elevated, signaling ongoing deleveraging
Precious metals saw extreme liquidation before rebounding — crypto did not
🧠 Key Insight
Markets may be overpricing QT risks.
Structural constraints in the financial system — including:
Depleted reverse repo balances
The U.S. Treasury’s ~$2T annual funding needs
…could limit how aggressively the Fed can shrink its balance sheet.
Additionally, the end of the U.S. government shutdown removes a major near-term policy uncertainty that many are overlooking.
🔮 What to Watch Next
$70,000 BTC as a critical psychological and technical support
Signs of leverage reset across derivatives markets
Liquidity signals from USD, Treasury yields, and funding rates
📌 Crypto remains highly sensitive to global liquidity — but once deleveraging ends, recovery can be sharp.
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