9.3 million BTC loss: On-chain data reveals the true market pressure
Glassnode issued a critical warning today: Over 9.3 million bitcoins are currently trading below their purchase price, reaching the highest level since January 2023. This means that 45% of the circulating supply of bitcoin is in a loss state, with the real market pressure far exceeding price appearances.
Market signals behind the data
Loss scale: 9.3 million BTC ≈ 45% of circulation, market value approximately $60 billion. Profit and loss ratio: The 90-day simple moving average has fallen to 1.5, gradually approaching 1. Historical pattern: If this metric continues to fall below 1, it is usually accompanied by widespread capitulation selling.
Insights for investors
Bottom signal: Large-scale losses often appear in phase bottom areas, but caution is needed against “long squeeze” scenarios. Defensive strategy: The market has shifted to a defensive mode, with short-term holders' cost basis (approximately $94,500) becoming a key resistance. On-chain monitoring: Continuous attention should be paid to changes in exchange balances, whale holdings, and other indicators.
Practical operational advice
For traders still in the market, the current phase may consider:
Accumulating in batches: Utilize Binance spot grid and other tools to set a batch buying plan in the $60,000-$65,000 range. Risk hedging: Appropriately use Binance options products for downside protection to control overall risk exposure. Long-term perspective: If the holding period exceeds one year, the current price already possesses significant long-term value.
Data doesn't lie, but data needs interpretation. The collective loss of 9.3 million BTC serves both as a risk warning and as a rare layout window for rational investors.
