Quantum computing is often portrayed as a looming doomsday scenario for Bitcoin, but a new analysis from CoinShares suggests the threat may be far less immediate than many headlines imply.
According to the firm’s research, only a very small fraction of the circulating Bitcoin supply is theoretically exposed to quantum attacks. The vulnerable coins are primarily those held in addresses where public keys are already visible on the blockchain. In contrast, the vast majority of BTC sits in standard wallet structures that do not reveal the public key until the funds are spent, making them significantly harder to target—even in a future with advanced quantum machines.
The concerns around quantum computing usually center on algorithms such as Shor’s and Grover’s, which could, in theory, weaken the cryptographic foundations used in Bitcoin. Shor’s algorithm is often cited as a potential threat to elliptic-curve signatures, while Grover’s could reduce the effective strength of hashing algorithms like SHA-256. However, CoinShares argues that the practical application of these algorithms against Bitcoin would require millions of fault-tolerant qubits—far beyond what today’s quantum computers can achieve.
Even in the most optimistic projections for quantum hardware, the report suggests that cracking the majority of Bitcoin wallets would take an impractically long time. In many cases, it could take centuries or even millennia to break individual addresses, making the idea of a sudden, systemic collapse highly unlikely.
The topic has sparked debate within the Bitcoin community. Some industry figures see quantum computing as a long-term engineering challenge that the network can adapt to over time, especially through potential upgrades like post-quantum cryptographic signatures. Others argue that the threat is existential and that preparations should begin sooner rather than later.
