When the fear and greed index is still at 14, the market has quietly differentiated. On one side, sentiment hasn't climbed out of the pit, while on the other side, "money" has already started to realign. CoinShares directly points out that quantum risk has been severely exaggerated, and the Strategy's attitude is simpler and more brutal: BTC should be bought forever. The price responded on the same day, a slight rebound of $BTC is not important, what matters is that consensus has not weakened.
Another line is "institution and structure." The White House will hold a crypto meeting next week, for the first time bringing banks in to discuss stablecoin yields; the CFTC has already allowed national trust banks to issue stablecoins; meanwhile, some are shouting that "stablecoins will collapse," but this very divergence indicates that stablecoins have already stood at the core of the system, rather than being an edge experiment.
Market games are also very real. Arthur Hayes bets on HYPE, Yi Lihua insists that the cycle is still ongoing, Tom Lee looks back at ETH's eight deep pullbacks, almost all have shown a V shape; volatility caused by market maker grid errors is seen as "bearish," but in essence, it is a liquidity structure issue, not asset death. On Polymarket, the probability of BTC returning to 75,000 in February has already been pushed to 64% by funds, this is not sentiment, it is betting.
Interestingly, there is a control group. Gold has been named by the U.S. Treasury Secretary as having "speculative selling," while the Nikkei has surged to a historic high amidst political changes, indicating that global funds are seeking assets that are "configurable, narratable, and extendable". Crypto is just one of the segments with the largest volatility and the most transparency.
In this environment, looking at @Plasma and $XPL , there is actually no need to forcefully catch the trend. In the short term, it will still be tossed around by sentiment, but in the medium to long term, settlements, channels, and stablecoin efficiency—these "boring but necessary" things—are often overlooked in times of panic and chased after in recovery periods. A bull market never starts from optimistic sentiment, but rather from "extreme panic but the structure is intact."
The market is washing out participants, not collapsing. You are panicking about the price, while smart money is focused on the position.
@Plasma $XPL #plasma #btc #ETH
