Brothers, let me say something unappealing first: recently I've been watching $XPL, not starting with the K-line, but first looking at the 'people' and 'rules'. Because at this stage, the overall market sentiment is what it is; relying on passion is useless, relying on mechanisms is what saves lives.
Today, I came across two points closely related to @plasma that can be put into practice: one is the 'data aspect', and the other is the 'activity aspect'.
Let's first present the data aspect: the current price of XPL is around $0.083, with a 24h trading volume of about 48-50 million USD, circulating 1.8 billion, and a market cap fluctuating around 150 million USD. But what’s even more painful is that Binance's price page directly gives a reality check — a decline of about -74% over the past 90 days. What does this mean? It means that 'the bottom you thought you saw' might just be a small buffer zone in someone else's position. Don't pretend to be brave.
The activity aspect is even more interesting: the CreatorPad Plasma (XPL) event runs from January 16 to February 12 (UTC), with a prize pool of 3,500,000 XPL. However, the most contentious issue in the community recently is not the prize pool, but the misjudgment of the points system: some content was marked as 'irrelevant' resulting in no scoring, and Binance Square stated this is a system issue and they are correcting the scores. I almost laughed when I saw this: brothers, one of the most stable things in the crypto community — 'the rules occasionally act up'. So my current strategy is: use the most straightforward method to survive: post content without straying too far, don't make fake moves in trading/interactions, and keep evidence if possible (don't ask, just know I've been educated by the system).
The last time point I will keep an eye on: there is an unlocking/release event on February 25 (as clearly stated in Tokenomist's calendar). These types of events may not necessarily lead to a decline, but they will change the 'selling pressure expectations'. If you ask me what the market feels like now, it feels more like a 'sentiment repair + rule repair' market, rather than a market where 'fundamentals suddenly explode'.
The conclusion is simple: I don't oppose a bullish narrative on @plasma, but I suggest that brothers keep a steady rhythm — take the activity points if you can, don't get carried away with positions; as the event approaches, risk management is essential. When the market is bad, staying alive is more important than predictions.
