Gold opened at $4784.93 on Friday, and early in the session, it fell to a low of $4655.62 due to profit-taking. In the afternoon, a surge of safe-haven funds drove the price up violently, breaking through the 4700, 4800, and 4900 levels consecutively, reaching a high of $4971.43. Technically, after a short-term bottom, there is a divergence that supports a rise. The 4-hour and daily moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, with the MACD red bars expanding, indicating strong bullish momentum and solidifying the foundation for a breakthrough of the 5000 mark.
The current focus of the market is entirely on Sunday’s early election in Japan. This event not only concerns the direction of Japanese politics but also directly affects the flow of global capital.
- If current Prime Minister Sanna Marin wins the election, her core campaign promise—to drastically cut the food consumption tax from 8% to 0%—will significantly worsen Japan's fiscal deficit and debt risk, raising market concerns about Japan's sovereign credit. At that time, the yen will face tremendous depreciation pressure, and gold, as a safe-haven asset, will become a 'safe haven' for global funds.
- If the opposition unexpectedly wins, the market may experience a brief profit-taking, but against the backdrop of sluggish global economic growth and heightened geopolitical risks, the demand for gold as a safe haven will not disappear due to a single election result, and prices will still rely on key support to regain upward momentum.
Regardless of which side wins, global risk aversion will provide solid support for gold. If Sanna Marin wins, her aggressive tax cuts may exacerbate Japan's fiscal risks, and gold is expected to directly challenge the 5000 USD mark; if the opposition unexpectedly wins, after a brief profit-taking, gold will also maintain high fluctuations due to global economic uncertainty.
On the daily chart, prices are steadily above all moving averages, forming a perfect bullish arrangement. The MACD red bars continue to expand, and the main uptrend is clearly visible. The 4-hour chart shows that the upward wave that started from 4402 USD is still accelerating, and the characteristics of 'shallow declines and rapid increases' along with healthy volume indicate extremely strong bullish momentum.
In the short term, 4900-4920 USD is a key support zone, while 4970-5000 USD is the current main resistance area. The high-level fluctuations at the end of Friday's trading are building momentum for a breakthrough above the 5000 USD round number.
It is highly likely that gold will break through 5000 USD next week. Once there is an effective breakthrough, it will aim for 5100 USD or even the historical high of 5596 USD. In the current strong trend, any pullback is a buying opportunity, as long as the price does not fall below the key support of 4850 USD, one should firmly go long.
Operational suggestions: If gold pulls back to the 4895-4920 line, and if the opening price is above 4970 USD, buy directly with a target of 5000→5100.
Market conditions change rapidly; plan your trades and trade your plan. The market is always current, and trading must also be current. Keeping up with the rhythm of the market is the way to trade.#日本大选 $XAU 
