U.S. tariff revenues have declined over the past few months, raising questions about whether demand for imports is finally adjusting to high trade barriers.
Since October, the customs duties collected by the Treasury have declined by about 11%, based on monthly Treasury data and daily deposit figures from the Department of Homeland Security, which closely track the official numbers.
At its peak in October, the U.S. was collecting about $376 billion in tariff revenues on an annual basis, as noted by UBS economist Arend Captain in a memo. By the end of January, this pace slowed to about $335 billion.
However, Captain warned against reading the decline as a clear signal of weaker business activity.
The economist indicates that seasonal patterns likely play a significant role. Imports in December and January tend to be lower, as retailers typically complete most holiday inventory restocking earlier in the year. To adapt to this, Captain looked at tariffs as a share of estimated imports - the effective tariff rate - which shows a much less pronounced decline than headline revenue figures.
Recent U.S. trade data has also shown volatility rather than signaling a sustained slowdown, with sharp swings in the trade deficit as import volumes rebounded in some months, especially in capital goods, after a previous tightening.
As changes in tariff policy affected collections, Captain noted. In November, the IEEPA tariff rate related to Chinese fentanyl was reduced by 10 percentage points, from 20% to 10%.
Captain said this move alone "could be worth about 1 percentage point on the effective tariff rate," with slight additional exemptions granted to other countries that contributed more.
At the same time, port activity showed a notable decline in late 2025, with shipping volumes in major U.S. hubs down and logistics executives indicating tariff impacts and timing issues around seasonal shipping patterns.
Taken together, a combination of seasonal import slowdowns and low legal rates paints a picture of recent revenues. While customs receipts have clearly dropped from their highs in October, Captain emphasized that the data does not yet indicate a demand-driven decline in imports.
The economist also concluded: "With all this in mind, it is not yet clear that tariff collections are declining in response to weaker demand for imports."
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