People often say, 'When the cannon fires, gold will flow,' but in the crypto world, every instance of geopolitical 'difficulties' could be the spark that ignites the market. Recently, Iran clearly rejected the U.S. proposal for 'zero enrichment' during negotiations in Oman. In plain language: the trump card has not been revealed enough, and the risk of talks collapsing is rising. As a trader, you must understand the asset linkage logic behind this.

1. Why is 'zero enrichment' an insurmountable deadlock?

Simple science: 'zero enrichment' means requiring Iran to completely abandon uranium enrichment activities. For Iran, this is not only a matter of energy rights, but also the only leverage on the negotiating table.

  • Iran's stance: 'Enrichment rights are the bottom line; proportions can be discussed, but nothing can be negotiated away.'

  • Pressure from the US: Internal hardliners (especially some Israeli and American legislators) demand complete eradication, leaving no opportunity.

In-depth analysis: This collision of 'core interests' means that negotiations have entered a tug-of-war. In the short term, sanctions will not be lifted, and Iranian crude oil cannot return to the market on a large scale.

2. Historical case: How geopolitics has 'harvested' the crypto market?

Many newcomers feel that the Iran nuclear negotiations are far from digital currency; let's review:

  1. Illusion of safe-haven properties: During the Iran-Israel conflict in April 2024, BTC did not skyrocket like gold; instead, it experienced sharp pullbacks due to leveraged liquidations.

  2. Liquidity tightening: Geopolitical tensions lead to rising crude oil price expectations, inflation expectations rise, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations delay bleeding in the crypto market.

Professional observation: Cryptocurrencies are still seen as 'risk assets' rather than purely 'safe-haven assets'. When this political uncertainty increases, the first response of large institutions is 'de-leveraging' and 'holding cash'.

3. The specific impact on the current crypto market

  1. BTC (Bitcoin): Expected to remain within a wide range of fluctuations. As long as negotiations do not completely break down (leading to war), BTC is unlikely to experience a unilateral collapse, but upward breakthroughs require liquidity support.

  2. Safe-haven asset linkage: Observe $GOLD (gold) and $USOIL (crude oil). If crude oil breaks above $85/barrel due to negotiation deadlock, the crypto market is likely to be under pressure in the short term.

  3. Stablecoin flow: Pay attention to trading volume. If the situation remains stagnant, funds will flow into USDT/USDC as a safe haven, market depth will deteriorate, and 'door painting' market conditions are likely to occur.

4. Class representative summary: Practical operation suggestions

Since this is a call for papers, let's get straight to the strategy reference:

  • Conservative: Reduce high leverage. Geopolitical news is most likely to trigger 'midnight spikes'; don't let your position die in the tug-of-war before dawn.

  • Aggressive: Pay attention to the exchange rate of BTC/Gold. If gold rises sharply while BTC stagnates, it indicates that safe-haven funds have not flowed into the crypto market, making it unwise to chase high prices.

  • Macro control: Focus on the date of the next second round of dialogue in Oman. The period before negotiations is usually the time of lowest volatility, suitable for deploying volatility strategies.

A final word from the heart:

At Binance Square, we are not just trading coins; we are observing the flow of wealth in this world. Iran's 'rejection' is actually reminding us that the turbulence of global order is far from over; cash flow and position control will always be your lifeline.