Just now, an old fan sent me a message with a string of crying faces. He asked me: “Uncle Kong, $ETH is this market about to crash again? It keeps falling, and I feel uneasy.”
I was watching an old man play chess downstairs and replied to him:
“Have you ever seen a sprinter?”
He got tired from running and squatted down to catch his breath. Do you think he's about to collapse on the track, or do you think he's conserving energy for the next sprint?
The problem with retail investors is that they dramatize too much. They complain about the slow rise when the market is up, and they fear death when it is down. In fact, the market is not that scary; many times, the main players are just squatting down to tie their shoelaces, scaring off the timid in the process.
Let's discard those complicated inner dramas and look at the current state of ETH:
1. Look at the 4-hour chart:
The previous spike reached 1736. It's like a person suddenly squatting down to test if the floor is solid. Since 1736 didn't break, and it can bounce back to above 2000, it indicates that the floor is reinforced concrete. That deep pit is the main force's 'golden pit'.
2. Look at the 1-hour chart:
The current price is hovering around 2080, not going up or down. But pay attention to the trading volume—it's getting smaller (decreasing volume).
What does this indicate? It indicates that those who wanted to cut losses have already run away during the early hours. What remains are those who do not want to sell. The selling pressure has dried up, just like an athlete catching their breath, the next step is usually another push.
The current decline resembles the main force's 'fake fall'. You see it dropping sharply, but it hasn't really broken the key level (2000). This is a show for retail investors, making you think it's about to crash, so you obediently hand over your blood-stained chips.
Understanding that the main force is on a 'half-time break', we shouldn't act as the foolish ones to short at this time. What we need to do is to quietly follow behind them when they tie their shoelaces and get up.
🎯 Direction: Pull back to enter long (Main logic: If it can't fall, it will rise)
📍 Ambush area: 2030 - 2045
Reason: This is the current 'rest area'. The main force has worked hard to pull the price back above 2000, and they won't easily drop it again for a few retail investors. This is the highest cost-performance ratio.
🛑 Stop loss: 1990
Reason: This is the bottom line. If even the psychological support of 2000 is taken away, it shows that the main force is really weak, and we shouldn't hold on; we should run quickly.
💰 Take profit:
First target: 2130 (the ceiling of previous rebounds)
Second target: 2177 (the vacuum area after the breakthrough)
The current market is a huge filter. It filters out the restless, timid, and impatient.
