1. Data Breakdown: The "easy question" behind the probabilities

First, let's look at this batch of freshly released data:

  • Probability of a 50 basis point rate cut: 32.5% (this is currently the "basic scenario")

  • Probability of a 75 basis point rate cut: 25.9% (this is a "small surprise")

  • No rate cut at all? The probability is only 5.4% (almost negligible)

Translated into plain language: In 2026, the Federal Reserve's "easing" is almost a certainty. The difference is only whether the faucet is opened wide or narrow. The current interest rate level of 3.5%-3.75% makes many institutions and whales feel "anxious." Once the interest rate cut cycle begins, the U.S. dollars that were originally lying in banks earning interest will, like hungry wolves, seek higher-yielding assets.

2. Why should we look at 2026? (Pitfall Guide)

Many newcomers will ask: '2026 is still far away, why care about this?'

Brother, listen carefully: What the crypto circle speculates on is expectation!

  1. The 'time lag' of liquidity returning: History shows that a rate cut does not mean the good news is fully priced in, but rather a process of liquidity injection. The fluctuations at the end of 2025 are actually digesting the last pangs of high interest rates.

  2. The uncertainties of the Federal Reserve's leadership transition: Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the new official will bring their own vigor. If a dove takes office, the probability of a 75 basis point cut could quickly become 100.

  3. Case Review: Looking back at that wave in 2020, the Federal Reserve drastically cut interest rates to save the market. Although the macro environment is different now, the underlying logic of 'rate cuts = more money = rising risk assets' has never changed.

3. Practical operation advice in the crypto circle: Don't just watch the show, get in the game!

Now that we know a rate cut is highly likely, how should we position ourselves?

  • 1. Spot positioning (long-term is king):

    • BTC & ETH: During the rate cut cycle, these two are the 'stabilizing forces'. The entry ticket for institutional funds (like BlackRock, Fidelity) is these. As long as the probability remains between 50-75 basis points, every pullback is an opportunity to 'pick up passengers'.

    • Altcoin selection: Focus on AI and DeFi sectors with substantial business support. Rate cuts mean lower borrowing costs, making DeFi yields more attractive.

  • 2. Contract trading (defensive counterattack):

    • Avoid the volatility of the 'rate cut shoe dropping': The moment the rate cut news is released, it often results in a double explosion. It is advisable to position trend long positions a week before the monetary policy meeting and reduce positions on the day of the meeting.

    • Funding rate: With the rate cut, everyone's enthusiasm for going long will surge, so pay attention to the funding rate. If the rate is too exaggerated, remember to take profits and don't give money to the shorts.

  • 3. Asset allocation:

    • Don't go all in. It is recommended to maintain 30-40% liquidity in USDT to specifically bet on the unexpected rate cuts (like the 25.9% probability of a 75 basis point cut).

The Federal Reserve's data is like a compass; it may not make you rich overnight, but it can help you not lose your way in the vast sea. In 2026, once the Federal Reserve's 'faucet' is turned on, the spring of the crypto circle will not be far away.