Super Week Alert! Non-farm Payrolls + CPI Make Their Debut, Crypto Market Faces Key Turning Point
Next week, the financial market will experience a data explosion week, with the two core indicators of U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI appearing simultaneously, directly influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. Treasuries all enter a high volatility window, with each piece of data potentially triggering market movements!
On Tuesday evening, the U.S. December retail data will be released first. As a consumption-driven economy, retail performance directly reflects household purchasing power and economic resilience, serving as a leading indicator for market predictions of economic conditions. On Wednesday evening, the delayed non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will be released, with the market expecting an increase of 70,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 4.4%. However, preliminary data such as small non-farm payrolls, layoffs, and unemployment claims are all weak, creating significant uncertainty over whether non-farm payrolls will meet expectations, while revisions to 2025 non-farm payrolls will also sway market sentiment.
On Thursday morning, the auction of 10-year U.S. Treasuries will directly impact Treasury yields, and the initial unemployment claims data released in the evening will need close tracking, as last week's data was already weaker than expected. The January CPI, making its grand appearance on Friday, is the focal point, with market predictions for inflation to fall to 2.5%. If it meets optimistic expectations, it will significantly strengthen the expectations for interest rate cuts, becoming a major positive for risk assets; however, if it exceeds expectations, the market may face a sharp correction.
Next week's data will set the tone for short-term liquidity trends, with significant volatility expected in the crypto market. Do you think non-farm payrolls will disappoint or exceed expectations? Will CPI fall as scheduled? Share your judgments in the comments
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