🛑 $XMR FOMO Crash to Distribution — Trend Still Favors Bears
📈Market Structure
Monero printed a classic blow-off top after a parabolic January rally, followed by a sharp trend reversal once BTC momentum stalled. Price has now broken long-term trendline support and shifted from expansion to distribution. The structure confirms a transition from bullish trend continuation to a corrective bearish phase, with lower highs and heavy supply absorption visible on the chart.
🔑Key Levels to Watch
Major Resistance Zones:
$390 – $420 (liquidity magnet / potential bull trap)
$500 (macro supply and previous range high)
Immediate Resistance: $352 (78.6% Fib retracement, now flipped to supply)
Critical Support: $266 – $276 (next structural demand zone)
Macro Base: $230 (origin of parabolic rally)
🪧Volume & Momentum Analysis
Selling volume spiked aggressively during the 63% drawdown, confirming strong distribution rather than healthy consolidation. The A/D indicator hitting multi-month lows shows sustained capital outflows, while the 20/50 MA bearish crossover and DMI downtrend confirm trend weakness. Bulls failed to defend key retracement levels, signaling weak dip demand and high probability of continuation or range-bound redistribution.
Bias & Outlook
Bias remains bearish to neutral. A BTC relief bounce could trigger a temporary XMR retracement toward $390–$420, but this zone is likely to act as a reload short area unless structure reclaims $500+. Until then, rallies are suspect and better viewed as liquidity grabs.
Bottom Line: The parabolic run is over. Knife-catching here is high-risk—patience favors short-term traders and disciplined swing setups.
