When will BTC actually rebound? A must-read guide for beginners to avoid pitfalls and "buying the dip"
"Feeling anxious from the drop, exhausted from checking the account, when will it finally end?"
This is the question I received the most in private messages on Binance Square recently.
This year's market has indeed taught a lesson to many newcomers. Watching BTC fall from its peak, many people have begun to doubt life: Is Bitcoin going to zero? Is the bull market completely over?
Don't worry, we won't discuss those metaphysical technical lines. Today, I'll break down for everyone with the most down-to-earth logic: When will BTC rebound? What should we do now?
1. Don't just look at the price; first, see what the 'big players' are doing.
Many beginners only focus on the red and green bars on the chart, but that is just the result. We need to see where the money comes from.
1. The Federal Reserve's 'faucet':
Everyone should imagine Bitcoin as a large water pool, with the Federal Reserve controlling the faucet. The recent market performance has been average because the 'faucet' is tightly turned, and people have no extra money. However, according to the latest macro data, the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2026 still exists; as soon as the faucet is loosened, money will flow into the cryptocurrency space, and the rebound will happen in an instant.
2. Institutions are not here to do charity:
Look at those big shots at BlackRock; their ETF holdings haven't changed much. Institutions are smarter than us and more patient. If they don't leave, it means the big trend is still there.
2. Two simple methods to judge rebounds (a layman's version of professional indicators)
You don't need to learn complex wave theories; just look at these two signals.
Fear and Greed Index: When the square is full of curses and everyone says it will go to zero (the index is in extreme fear), it is often a precursor to a rebound. Remember that saying: 'When others are fearful, I am greedy.'
Trading Volume: A real rebound is not shouted out by a few people, but bought with real money. If there has been a long period of low volume and then suddenly a day of high volume rises, it indicates that the main funds have entered the market to buy.
3. Practical Case: History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
Do you remember that adjustment in 2024? At that time, BTC retraced to a point where no one dared to buy, and then it turned around and hit a new high.
Case Analysis:
A certain fan sold at the lowest point due to fear of going to zero during the adjustment at the end of 2024, resulting in missing out on a subsequent 30% increase. This is a typical case of 'falling before dawn.'
Looking at old investors: Since you are optimistic about the big direction, build your position in batches during the decline. For example, if you have 1000 yuan, buy 100 yuan every time it drops by 5%. This way, your cost will always be lower than others, and when the rebound comes, you will be the one who profits the fastest.
4. A few 'life-saving' tips for beginners.
Since this is an essay, we should share some heartfelt operational advice:
Reject all-in bets, reject high leverage: A beginner's biggest enemy is not the market, but 'impatience for quick success.' Opening a hundred-fold leverage before confirming a rebound is like taking nuts from a fire.
Spot trading is king: As long as you buy spot, not getting liquidated, you will always be in the game. Rebounds will be late, but they won't be absent.
Pay attention to 'key levels': Currently, BTC has strong support near [insert current key support level, such as 85000 or 90000]. If it holds here, the rebound is imminent.
The cryptocurrency space is never short of opportunities; what it lacks is patience and understanding. When will BTC rebound? When most people can't hold on and leave, that's when it makes its comeback.
Is your current position profitable or losing? How much do you think BTC will drop to? Feel free to leave a comment, and let's warm each other up!
(Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency space has risks; invest cautiously.)
