In the past few days, the smell of gunpowder from the Middle East has wafted over through the screen again. The US-Iran confrontation has escalated, drones have been intercepted, and various rumors about nuclear facilities are circulating... While everyone is scrolling through the news, the coins in their hands must be trembling as well.
Many newcomers ask me: 'Bro, isn't Bitcoin referred to as 'digital gold' that can hedge against risks? How come when a war breaks out, it drops harder than anyone else?'
Today, we won't delve into those profound macroeconomic theories; let's use the most down-to-earth logic to break down how we retail investors should protect our wallets in the face of this confrontation.
1. Case Review: History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes
Let's first look at two hot cases:
Case 1: Rumors of US military raid in June 2025
At that time, as soon as the news broke, Bitcoin crashed from $101,000 in just a few hours, causing over 170,000 people to liquidate. Why? Because in the face of true panic, 'liquidity' is king. Institutions and major players will prioritize selling the most liquid cryptocurrencies to cash out for survival or to supplement margins in other markets.
Case 2: The 'Weekend Heist' in early February 2026
Just a few days ago (February 5), influenced by the US-Iran situation and risk-averse sentiment, Bitcoin fell below $70,000. Since the traditional stock market is closed on weekends, the crypto market has become the only global 'pressure valve for risk sentiment'. With no place to sell stocks, everyone had to sell coins to hedge.
Conclusion: For beginners, remember one thing — in the short term, it is a risk asset, in the long term, it is a safe-haven asset. When the sound of gunfire starts, the market's first reaction is to 'sell and convert to USD for safety', rather than rushing in to buy coins.
2. Why is your coin dropping? (A must-read logic for beginners)
Leveraged chain explosions: Many people are using 10x or 50x leverage. As long as the market fluctuates by 3%, it will trigger forced liquidations, and liquidations can lead to further declines, creating a 'chain reaction'.
Risk-averse fund reallocation: Large funds will flow into government bonds and physical gold. In comparison, cryptocurrencies are still viewed as 'high-risk growth stocks' by mainstream institutions.
Strengthening USD: War expectations usually drive up the USD index. When the dollar is strong, Bitcoin priced in dollars naturally appears 'cheap' (value decreases).
3. Operational Suggestions: Under the shadow of war, where should your hands be?
If you are a newcomer, it is recommended to refer to the following three 'life-saving symbols':
First: Control your hands, refuse high leverage!
Market movements triggered by geopolitical tensions are most likely to experience 'spikes'. It may drop $5,000 in one minute and then bounce back the next minute. Beginners trading contracts in such a market are basically just giving away their heads. If you hold the spot, you still have a chance to recover; if liquidated, then you're left with only the 'sense of participation'.
Second: Observe the divergence between gold and oil prices
If gold skyrockets and Bitcoin plummets, it indicates that the market is purely in risk-averse mode. At this time, do not rush to 'buy the dip'. Wait until the rise of gold slows down and Bitcoin starts to consolidate before considering it a true stabilization signal.
Third: Pay attention to the 'sentiment indicators'
The fear and greed index on Binance Square, if it reaches around 20 (extreme fear), and the US-Iran situation does not worsen substantially (such as a real large-scale war), is often a good opportunity to gradually build a position.
Message from an old friend
The crypto space has never lacked opportunities, but it lacks capital. The US-Iran standoff is a political game, while we need to participate in the wealth game. Do not be scared by short-term bearish candles, and do not go ALL IN when emotions are running high.
The smoke of geopolitical tensions will eventually dissipate, while the value of consensus will only settle.
