Perhaps many people have experienced what I have, going through the period from January to February 2026, like a roller coaster, from unwilling to close positions in profit to the current liquidation losses. I have operations on two platforms, primarily spot trading on Ouo and contract trading on Binance. At this moment, I have 1000U left in my Binance account. The most important thing now is to adjust my mindset, calm down, prepare for another battle, and strive to turn 1000U into 100,000U.
I will discuss with everyone based on my personal views on what the next steps should be.
First, analyze the recent market:
In the last three days (February 5th - February 7th), the market data shows that BTC and ETH experienced a dramatic fluctuation of 'sharp decline - violent rebound.' The market is currently in a critical phase of technical and emotional recovery, but the core negative factors have not completely dissipated.
BTC has experienced a 'roller coaster' market. From February 5-6, it briefly fell below the $60,000 mark, hitting a low not seen in over a year; on February 7, there was a violent rebound, with an intraday increase exceeding 15%, bringing the price back above $70,000, currently fluctuating between $72,000 and $74,000.
The ETH trend is highly correlated with BTC, and it has also experienced a strong rebound after a sharp decline, with the price once standing above $2600.
From the previous two charts, it is not hard to see that after BTC was approved in January 2024, it experienced two months of crazy accumulation between $54,000 - $70,000 before finally challenging above $100,000. In contrast, after ETH was approved, it dropped from around $3800 to about $2300, also experiencing three months of crazy accumulation before continuing to rise. I firmly believe that regardless of how the bear market cycle goes or what black swans occur, the crypto market is manipulated by an invisible hand and a small number of 'people.' I believe they will not allow themselves to be in a long-term loss state. I believe BTC will always stay above $70,000 in the long term, and ETH will stay above $2300 in the long term.
But when is the best time to operate for oneself? Here are my steps for entering the market:
News perspective:
The market is currently in a complex situation of 'bearish sentiment not yet dissipated, but emotional recovery.' Confirm target signals before re-entering. The following three factors should be highlighted:
1. Macroeconomic policy pressure: U.S. President Trump nominated hawkish Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, whose 'balance sheet reduction' policy aims to continue suppressing market liquidity expectations, which is the fundamental reason for this round of decline.
2. ETF fund outflows: Although the price has rebounded, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF funds are still in a net outflow state, with institutional capital showing a cautious attitude, and there has not yet been a signal of large-scale inflow.
3. Domestic regulatory tightening: Eight departments, including the central bank, jointly issued a document reiterating that related virtual currency businesses are illegal within the territory and strictly prohibiting mining, which exerts certain pressure on market sentiment.
Technical perspective:
BTC technical indicators: MACD: The MACD histogram at the hourly level remains positive, with both DIF and DEA diverging upwards, showing an increase in short-term bullish momentum. RSI: The hourly RSI is between 60-65, not entering the overbought area but close to the critical value, and may face correction pressure in the short term. Key levels: Short-term support is at $69,000 - $69,300, with strong resistance above at $75,000 - $78,000. If it can effectively break through $75,000, it is expected to test $78,000; if it cannot break through, it may retest the $63,000 - $60,000 support.
ETH technical indicators: Key levels: Short-term support is at $2020-$2050, with resistance above at $2170-$2200. If it can stabilize above $2200, it is expected to challenge $2300.
From the above personal analysis, under the dual buff of approvals, there are two possible future trends:
1. Optimistic scenario (lower probability): If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above $75,000 (BTC) and $2200 (ETH), and ETF funds turn into net inflows, it may confirm a short-term bottom and start a new round of rebound.
2. Cautious scenario (higher probability): The current rebound is more of a technical correction and short covering. Against the backdrop of tightening macro policies and capital outflows, the market lacks the momentum for sustained growth. It is expected that the price will fluctuate between $63,000 - $75,000 (BTC) and $1800 - $2200 (ETH) with high volatility, and it may even test the $60,000 support again.
In summary, this may be the best buying opportunity at the moment. Even if it continues to decline, it will not remain in a sluggish phase for long. A spike is a high-probability event, and a rally is an inevitable event. Compared to BNB as the Binance platform coin, I believe it will reach new highs again; it's just a matter of time.$BTC $ETH $BNB
