Survive to laugh last
In 2017, I rushed into the cryptocurrency circle with the dream of 'getting rich overnight', but ended up being a 'veteran vegetables' who got harvested. After experiencing liquidation, debt, and even almost losing my wife during the darkest moments, I managed to turn things around with the last 'gambling money' of 800U, ultimately achieving eight-digit returns.
Today we won't discuss metaphysics, won't blow myths, only share the three core principles I exchanged for real money.
Cognitive section: The cryptocurrency circle is not a casino, it's a place for cultivation.
Many people treat the cryptocurrency circle as a casino, but I believe it is more like a place for cultivation. Only those who survive have the qualification to pick up treasures; those who die don't even have the chance to review.
During the LUNA flash crash and FTX collapse in 2022, friends around me who were fully invested lost everything overnight, while I survived simply because I adhered to one iron rule: always invest with spare money, and never borrow to bet my life. The market is always full of uncertainty; even if you have 100% confidence, it could plummet due to a black swan event.
The price fluctuations in the crypto world will always exceed your imagination. But the truth is: the market never makes mistakes; it is human emotions that always err. When I learned to judge the big trend using weekly or even monthly candlesticks, I realized that short-term ups and downs are just noise. Only by grasping the big direction can one make real profits.
Strategy section: My 'three axes' trading rules
1. Look at the big trend, set the direction
I never look at minute-level fluctuations; that's the frenzy of retail investors. Real opportunities that can make money are always hidden in the big trends of 4-hour or daily charts. My judgment criteria are very simple:
Consecutive bullish candles breaking previous highs → bull market starts, only go long and not short
Consecutive bearish candles breaking the bottom → bear market arrives, only short and not long
Price grinds back and forth → fluctuating market, just lie flat and observe
Trend is your friend; going against the trend is just giving money to the big players. For example, when Bitcoin rose from $30,000 to $69,000 in 2021, it was a clear upward trend; at this time, one should go long, rather than shorting because 'it seems too high.'
2. Find key levels
Price is like bungee jumping; it must rebound when it hits the support level and pull back when it reaches the resistance level. My secret to drawing key levels:
Draw horizontal lines at previous highs and lows (historical high and low points are natural coordinates)
Fibonacci retracement levels (especially pay attention to 0.618 and 0.382)
Liquidation volume concentration area (the place where the big players love to insert pins, often a reversal signal)
When Bitcoin breaks below the institutional cost zone (e.g., miner shutdown price + 30% safety margin), I will build my position in batches while steadily investing funds each month to average out costs.
3. Precise strikes in small cycles
When the daily chart shows a bullish trend, I switch to the 15-minute chart to look for entry signals:
MACD golden cross + volume expansion (energy confirmation is the real breakthrough)
Breakthrough of the descending trendline (pattern destruction is often the starting point of a trend reversal)
Long lower shadow + volume doubling (a sign that the big players' washout is over)
Only act after seeing any two signals; it's better to miss out than to make a mistake! Technical analysis is a weapon; mindset is the armor.
Mindset section: The essential difference between retail investors and winners
1. Position management is more important than technology
I have seen too many tragedies of people who see the right direction but lose due to position size. My iron rule is:
No single trade should exceed 5% of total capital
The position in a single cryptocurrency should not exceed 30%
Set stop-loss 3% below the support level (cut losses immediately if it breaks)
The crypto world is not short of opportunities; what is lacking is capital. Stop-loss is not 'giving up', but 'controlling risk'. Before each order, you must clearly define the stop-loss level and strictly enforce it — even if the market reverses after the stop-loss, do not regret it.
2. Refuse FOMO, learn to 'lie flat'
When the market is the craziest, it's precisely the most dangerous. When Bitcoin surges 10% in a single day and the community is in a frenzy, I actually reduce my position by 50%. Because emotional peaks are often signals that the market is topping.
Making profits in the crypto world is easy, but holding onto profits is difficult — the difficulty lies in 'greed'. Many people are not losing money, but when they make money, they don't know when to take profits, ultimately giving it all back and even losing their capital. My most commonly used method now is to take profits in batches: sell 20% when profit reaches 50%, sell 30% when profit reaches 100%, and sell 40% when profit reaches 200%.
3. Review three things every day
Reviewing past trades is the most important habit in my ten years of trading. Every day after the market closes, I ask myself:
Did I trade as planned today?
What is the reason for the losing trade? (Usually due to emotional excitement or ignoring stop-losses)
Is there a better entry point?
Continuous reviewing has shifted me from gambling based on feelings to systematic trading. The competition in the crypto world is essentially a competition of cognition. If you understand a bit more than others, you have more chances to profit.
Finally, let me say a truth
There are no shortcuts to getting rich overnight in the crypto world; only a trading system earned through blood and tears. Losing 800U is not scary; what is scary is repeatedly losing money using the wrong methods.
Survive to wait for the right moment. When you execute stop-loss during a crash, you are bowing to the market rather than kneeling; when you maintain regular investments in front of the myth of getting rich, you are swearing allegiance to time rather than submitting to money.
Welcome to follow my subsequent shares, let's be 'survivors' in the crypto world instead of 'retail investors'!
Follow Rao Ge's Crypto Diary, let you know more first-hand information and accurate points in the crypto world, become your navigator in the crypto space, and learning is your greatest wealth!#沃什美联储政策前瞻 #何时抄底？ $ETH
