History does not simply repeat itself, but it often carries similar rhythms—those who neglect cyclical signals will ultimately pay the price in volatility.
1. The market has changed its face: these signals are worth paying attention to.
Recently, Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 94,000, while altcoins are suffering tremendously, with many being cut in half or even more severely. The sudden surge of 'meme coins' (doubling in two or three days) alongside the strange stagnation of mainstream coins resembles the frenzy seen before the peak of the bull market at the end of 2021. In just a few weeks, tens of billions of dollars in leverage were liquidated across the network, causing many individuals' profits from the entire year to vanish in an instant.
What is even more concerning is that we are currently in the 18th month after the halving—historically a high-risk turning point in the Bitcoin cycle. The technical indicators are also sounding alarms: the three-year and yearly lines have both broken, and $72,000 has become a critical dividing line for bulls and bears. If macro hawkish statements and expectations of interest rate cuts continue to ease, market liquidity may tighten further.
2. Judging bull and bear markets cannot rely on feelings! Three key indicators reveal the truth
Sentiment indicator: The Fear and Greed Index has turned yellow
When social platforms are filled with calls to action, and novices ask 'which coin should I buy', the market is often not far from its peak. Conversely, when discussions hit a freezing point and the media declares that 'Bitcoin is dead', it is actually a bottom signal. Although this index is not yet extreme, we need to watch out for bubbles fueled by FOMO.
On-chain data: Large funds are quietly moving
Changes in exchange balance: If Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges (into cold wallets), it indicates that long-term holders are reluctant to sell; conversely, it suggests selling pressure.
Market capitalization of stablecoins: If the total market cap of stablecoins like USDT increases, it indicates that off-exchange funds are ready to flow in; a decrease means funds are withdrawing.
Recent data shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges are at multi-year lows, but the growth rate of stablecoins is slowing, indicating weak inflow of new funds.
Cycle indicators: Historical patterns are still in effect
Although some believe the 'four-year cycle theory' is ineffective, data shows that the MVRV ratio (Market Value/Realized Value) still effectively identifies overvalued/undervalued ranges. When MVRV > 3, the risk of a bubble increases; <1 may indicate a buying opportunity. Currently, this value is around 1.2-1.5, in a neutral to overheated range, so be cautious about chasing prices.
3. My strategy: Better to sell early than to sell late!
Take profits in batches, refuse greed
During frenzied phases (e.g., when the Fear and Greed Index > 75), I will gradually sell profitable positions, reducing by 10% for every 10% increase. History proves that perfectly timing the top is luck; retreating in batches is wisdom.
Stock up in bear markets, don’t panic in bull markets
If the market breaks key support, I will convert part of my position to stablecoins while dollar-cost averaging into core assets like BTC/ETH. Remember: Making money in a bull market relies on trends; making money in a bear market relies on patience.
Beware of the 'Shanzhai Coin Illusion'
The surge of altcoins often signals the end of a market trend. I will prioritize reducing positions in projects with weak fundamentals and pure speculation; preserving profits is more important than dreaming of becoming rich.
4. In conclusion: Your light is more important than the market.
The market is always fluctuating, but the cycle law is the only free navigation tool. Instead of getting tangled up in bull and bear, it’s better to refine your decision-making system:
Spend 10 minutes each week tracking key indicators (such as MVRV, exchange traffic);
Set a hard stop-loss line (e.g., a forced reduction if the position drops 20%);
Hold cash and wait for panic selling opportunities when prices are mistakenly low.
Opportunities never appear in noise; they are always planted when no one is paying attention. Those who rush forward in the dark will eventually stumble, while those with a light can navigate through bull and bear markets.
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