Friends, today I want to share with you my real experiences in the cryptocurrency world over the years. After eight years of trading, from initially following blindly to later forming my own system, my biggest realization is that—those who can truly survive are not the smartest, but the most disciplined. The following method does not contain any mysterious 'get-rich-quick secrets', only replicable practical logic, which I hope will help you take fewer detours.
1. Position management: First survive, then talk about profits
My core principle that I stick to is: always only use half of the total funds. Specifically, divide the funds into five parts, each corresponding to a trading opportunity, and strictly control the single stop loss within 10%. This way, even if I make mistakes in judgment five times in a row, the total loss will only be 10%, and the safety line of the principal will always be secure.
For example: if you have 100,000 in capital, invest only 20,000 each time. If a certain trade is judged incorrectly, and you cut losses after losing 2,000, that only accounts for 2% of the total funds. However, once the direction is correct, the profit target can be set at 15%-20%, allowing profits to run. Controllable risk is the prerequisite for long-term survival.
Second, trend is king: only eat the meat of the fish, do not gamble the head and tail.
The volatility in the crypto market is large, but once a trend is formed, it's difficult to reverse in the short term. The trend judgment method I often use is very simple:
For short-term, look at the 3-day line: enter when it turns upward.
From a medium-term perspective, look at the 30-day line: after forming support, gradually build positions.
Main rising wave looks at the 84-day line: hold without movement after breaking through.
Key point: do not operate against the trend. Rebounds in a downtrend are often traps for the unsuspecting, while corrections in an uptrend represent opportunities. For example, when BTC retreated from $28,000 to $25,000 last year, the 30-day line was still trending upward. I chose to add positions when the volume contracted and stabilized, later taking profits during the rebound.
Third, technical indicators: practical combination of MACD and volume.
I am accustomed to using MACD to determine buy and sell points:
Buy signal: DIF and DEA golden cross below the 0 axis, and stabilizing at the 0 axis;
Sell signal: dead cross above the 0 axis with shrinking volume.
However, indicators must be verified with volume. A breakout on increased volume from a low level is a signal to start; a slowdown on increased volume at a high level indicates risk. For example, if a certain altcoin suddenly spikes after consolidating at the bottom with increased volume, along with a MACD golden cross, this is a high-probability opportunity; whereas if the price makes a new high but the volume does not keep up, one should be wary of a top divergence.
Four, mindset control: cut losses without hesitation, do not overplay profits.
Adding to positions during a loss is the most fatal mistake for retail investors. My principle is: only add to profitable positions. If the price drops after buying, it indicates a potential error in judgment, and one should cut losses rather than average down. Conversely, if profits exceed 10%, one can add positions in batches to let profits roll.
At the same time, avoid emotional trading. Do not panic during early morning sharp declines, and do not chase highs during afternoon surges. There are opportunities in the market every day, but if the market does not belong to you, forcing participation will only come at a cost.
Five, review and iterate: improve by 1% every day.
I spend half an hour every night reviewing: has the logic of holding changed? Is the trend continuing? Is the operation strictly executed? Especially focus on weekly chart patterns; once signs of trend reversal are detected, adjust strategies in a timely manner.
For example, in January of this year, a certain token I heavily invested in showed a dark cloud cover pattern on the weekly chart. Despite still rising in the short term, I chose to reduce my position, avoiding a subsequent 20% pullback.
Summary: A clumsy method can still outperform most people.
This set of 'half-position operation method' seems simple, but the difficulty lies in persistence. The crypto market is not short of smart people; what is lacking are those with the patience to adhere to the rules. Over eight years, I have seen too many people pursue 'get-rich-quick' schemes and disappear, while those who survive are all individuals who have ingrained risk control into their DNA.
Remember: there are always opportunities in the market, but capital is limited. Survive first, then seek profits; slow is fast.
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