Yesterday's Pu-erh tea is not finished yet, $ETH it jumped from 1866 to above 2050.
The group is in jubilation, all shouting to chase the highs and look at 3000.
I need to throw a bucket of cold water: calm down.
We made a profit on the low at 1866 yesterday, trading is not like a dinner invitation, no one will always indulge you. The current pullback is not simply a 'bonus', but a harsh 'stress test'.
Don't be overly optimistic; we are now at the most critical 'gear-shifting period':
1. 2100 is a tough nut to crack.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, it previously dropped from 3000, and countless souls (stuck positions) accumulated around 2100. After surging to 2095, it was slapped back down (15-minute long upper shadow), indicating heavy selling pressure above. The major players are not philanthropists; they won't support the selling pressure with cash, they need to pull back - forcing those above to cut losses and scaring those below who are in profit to exit.
2. Pulling back to 2000 is to 'solidify the foundation'
Since it has stood above the 2000 mark, the main force must turn back and step on it. It's like building a house; after just pouring the cement (breaking 2000), you have to wait for it to dry and harden (pullback confirms support) before you can build the second layer. If the foundation is unstable, the building collapses faster.
3. The secret of volume
Looking at the 1-hour chart, an increase in volume during an uptrend and a decrease in volume during a pullback is a good phenomenon. But this does not mean you can buy at will. A decrease in volume means the main force is 'waiting for orders'; they are waiting for retail investors to panic and sell off their shares, usually at a position lower than you think.
Since you understand that the main force is in 'pullback confirmation' and 'digesting selling pressure', don't catch a falling knife halfway up the mountain (2050). Even if you miss it, don’t make a mistake. We must wait for it to fall thoroughly.
📝 Operation strategy
Direction: 📈 Low long (early stage of trend reversal, a pullback is an opportunity, but patience is needed)
Ambush area: 2010 - 2030
Reason: 2000 integer guard area + strong support from the 1-hour moving average. The main force spends money to break here; it is highly likely to build a 'flood control dam'.
Stop loss: 🛑 1975
Reason: Key point! The stop loss was tight yesterday, today it must be wide. A pullback is likely to test 1980. If it effectively breaks below 1975, it indicates that 2000 is just a 'one-day tour', and a false breakout is established; you must recognize the loss and exit.
Target price:
First stop: 🎯 2088 (near previous high 2095)
Second stop: 🚀 2130 (strong resistance at the 4-hour level)
The hardest part of trading is not when losing money, but when making money.
When losing money, you will be cautious; when making money, you will become inflated.
Now, the main force is conducting 'factory quality inspection' at the 2000 mark.
Are you the qualified product that can 'endure loneliness', or the defective product that gets eliminated with a shake?
Note: The internal group has successfully captured the early session, during the writing of the article ETH 2045, when preparing to publish, I took a look at the review, and the point can continue to go long.
