Just yesterday, it was gasping at the 60,000 mark, and today it was kicked back to 70,000. This kind of 'scare people to death and then save them' routine in BTC is something veteran players in the crypto world have seen too many times, yet it still manages to manipulate people's emotions tightly. Many people, upon seeing the return to 70,000 and ETH standing back at 2000, start to get excited: Is the bottom in? Is there a reversal? Can we leverage long and go all in? If you really think like this, you are very likely to be walking into the most classic trap of a rebound market: the decline washes you out, and the rebound lures you back in.
First, let me be clear: this rebound is indeed fierce, and it is quite 'reasonable'. Because the sharp decline a couple of days ago was essentially a self-detonation of the leveraged structure; the market was not brought down by 'short-selling', but rather by 'liquidation'. After the longs were thoroughly wiped out, the market suddenly felt lighter, and selling pressure became less intense for a short period. Those shorts who dared to add to their positions or hold on at low levels would get kicked away by a rebound, leading to further short liquidations that push the price up like a spring. This is why you see a quick switch from 'long liquidation dominance' to 'short liquidation dominance'; it's not that the market has turned bullish, but rather the market is educating both sides: those who leverage are the first to die.
Many people think that 'a sharp drop followed by a surge' means the bull market is back, but it actually resembles the market entering a more brutal phase: high volatility, strong hedging, and repeated harvesting. The worst part of this type of market is not the drop, but the constant temptation of rebounds that lures you to chase. When you chase, you get hurt during the next pullback, and then you start to doubt life, only to be attracted back in by the next surge. Those who are most likely to lose money in a rebound are often not the bears, but the bulls who are 'just scared and eager to recover their losses'.
As for 'why can it rebound', the answer is not that mysterious. Risk assets are very realistic; once external sentiment warms up, they will respond first. When U.S. stocks stabilize and tech stocks rebound, risk appetite rises, and crypto will naturally catch its breath. If geopolitical tensions ease slightly and the safe-haven sentiment for gold and silver cools, some funds will flow back to places with greater volatility to seek returns. More importantly, when prices drop to certain levels, many people, even if they are not optimistic, will still make a move for 'oversold recovery', especially large funds. They do not need to believe in a long-term bull market; they just need to believe that there will be a short-term rebound.
But this does not equal a trend reversal. A trend reversal is not 'a big bullish candle', but rather structural repair. True repair takes time: it requires prices to stabilize in key ranges. A rebound is not counted just because it charges through; it is about whether it can withstand a pullback after the surge and whether it can slowly digest the trapped positions from before. Otherwise, everything is just a 'flash in the pan repair', you see hope, but the market gives you a trap. What old players fear most is not a drop, but a rebound that 'looks like a reversal', because it easily gets people hooked, leading them to increase their positions to inappropriate levels.
So, if you ask what to do now, the answer is quite simple: don’t chase. Chasing after a rebound usually lacks cost-effectiveness during the first recovery after a sharp drop. What you really need to wait for is the moment when it can 'hold up after a pullback'. Whether BTC can stabilize around 70,000 or whether ETH can withstand a pullback after standing above 2,000 is more important than 'how much it has risen today'. The rebound after a sharp drop is fierce, but it usually comes with repeated retracements. You don’t need to catch every segment; what you need is to not be swept out during the pullbacks and still be able to enter at more stable positions.
As for contracts, it goes without saying that this stage is the easiest for 'you think you catch the trend, but you are actually being played by volatility'. If you really want to engage, you have to manage your position and leverage as if you were a newcomer. Don’t think that just because you've been through a few rounds you can handle it; the market only needs to give you one sharp pullback, and high leverage can wipe you out completely. Don’t hold positions, don’t average down, and don’t rely on faith. People who rely on faith in violent markets usually end up being fuel for others.
By the way, many people will turn their attention to 'things related to stablecoins' to find a sense of security, such as @Plasma $XPL #Plasma narratives, but don’t fantasize that they can remain unscathed in systemic volatility. When the market is in turmoil, everyone will look bad; its value is more reflected on another level: when the market returns from emotional battles to the stage of 'how to settle, how to circulate, and how to reduce friction', infrastructure will slowly be revalued. In the current market condition, expecting it to resist declines is unrealistic; expecting it to be useful in the long term is more logical.
Finally, I want to be a bit clearer:
No matter how fierce this rebound is, it only brings 'panic' back from the extreme to fear, which does not mean the bull market has restarted. A true bull market will not be confirmed by an overnight surge; it will slowly emerge when you least want to believe it. Conversely, a true bear market will not end with a single sharp drop; it will use countless rebounds to mislead you, encourage you to increase positions, and ultimately break your mentality.
What you should do now is not to be excited, but to be calm: treat rebounds as repairs, treat pullbacks as tests, and treat positions as life. Only by surviving can you qualify for the next round.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC #BTC #BTC走势分析 #加密货币
