Today, with Bitcoin struggling in the $60,000 zone after falling from its peak of $126,210, the sentiment is one of extreme fear. We have lost more than half of our value in months. But before selling in panic, let’s look at the cold data.
As Mark Twain said: "History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes." How many times has Bitcoin done this before?
🩸 The "-50% Club": Violent corrections (and their rebounds)
Losing half of its value is not new for BTC. In fact, it’s the usual "toll" to reach new highs.
2021 (May - July): Bitcoin fell by 54% (from $64k to $29k). The market shouted "Bear Market!". Result: 4 months later, Bitcoin marked a new ATH at $69,000.
2020 (March COVID): In a single day, BTC plummeted by 50%, falling below $4,000. Result: Ended the year breaking $20,000 and starting the legendary Bull Run.
2013 (April): Fell by 70% in days. Many declared it dead. Result: By the end of that same year, it rose more than 1000% to $1,100.
Lesson: A 50% drop is often a leverage cleanup. If the structure holds, it's a generational buying opportunity.
❄️ The "-80% Club": The real Crypto Winters
This is where we need to be careful. If the $60,000 support is definitively broken, history shows us the other side of the coin: the Crypto Winter.
2017 - 2018: After touching $20k, BTC fell by 84% to $3,200. It took 3 years to recover.
2014 - 2015: Drop of 85%.
2022: Drop of 77% (from $69k to $15k).
⚖️ The Verdict of 2026: What scenario are we in?
We are currently in a Drawdown of -52.4%.
Statistically, we are at the exact limit between a "Bull Market Correction" like in 2021 and the beginning of a "Winter" like in 2018.
If we hold the $60k: History says we are repeating the pattern of mid-2021. A brutal shakeout to flush out the "weak hands" before the final push towards $150k - $200k.
If we drop to $45k: We would enter the territory of the "-80% Club", which would project a painful floor, but also a massive accumulation zone for the next cycle.
🧠 Conclusion for the Intelligent Investor
Bitcoin has "died" more than 400 times in the press. Every time it fell by 50%, those who bought in fear ended up selling in euphoria months or years later.
The question is not if Bitcoin will rise again. The question is: Do you have the liquidity and the stomach to buy when the majority sells?
👇 Do you think this is a 2021 type scenario (V-shaped Bounce) or a 2022 type (long Winter)?
I read you in the comments.
