As the bear market deepens, the discussion about a potential bottom for bitcoin is becoming increasingly brutal. Some hope for a quick halt to the declines, while others reach for historical analogies from previous cycles.
After BTC dropped to around 60,000 USD, the largest cryptocurrency fell below its ATH from the previous bull market, which was a psychological breakthrough for many investors.
Analyst Damian Chmiel (Finance Magnates) admitted that the market has surpassed his previous technical scenarios. Based on Fibonacci levels, he has shifted the potential correction target to around 52,000 USD.
The analyst Sherlock goes even further, comparing the maximum drops of BTC in previous bear markets:
2011: −93%
2015: −86%
2018: −84%
2022: −77%
He notes that each subsequent bear market has been shallower. Assuming a drop of ~70% from the ATH in October 2025 (126,200 USD), the potential bottom would be around 38,000 USD.
