SemiAnalysis has revised its forecast regarding Micron $MU, adjusting its projected share of Nvidia Rubin HBM down to zero. At present, there are no visible signs that Nvidia is placing orders for HBM from Micron. Instead, the supply landscape for Nvidia HBM4 is expected to consolidate around SK Hynix and Samsung, with an estimated split of 70% and 30% respectively.

SemiAnalysis pointed out that we have adjusted Micron's $MU share expectation in Nvidia's Rubin architecture HBM to zero. At this stage, there are no observed signs of Nvidia ordering HBM from Micron. According to forecasts, the supply of Nvidia HBM4 is expected to further lock in on SK Hynix and Samsung, with the supply ratios estimated to be 70% and 30%, respectively.

From my personal analysis, Micron's focus on HBM business in 2026 is mainly concentrated on the Google TPU ecosystem, AMD camp, and some cloud service providers' self-developed ASIC projects. Since Micron's non-participation in Nvidia's Rubin series GPU supply has long been news, SemiAnalysis's move inevitably raises some suspicions of sensationalism. Additionally, Micron's 380 chip indeed offers a very high cost-performance ratio.