#加密市场观察 #Max

$2.5 billion options are set to expire amid 'extreme fear' – will the market face a massive shock or a turnaround?

On Friday, the market will reach a critical juncture: a total of $2.5 billion in cryptocurrency options is about to expire, with BTC accounting for $2.15 billion (maximum pain point $82,000) and ETH for $408 million (maximum pain point $2,550). At this time, the market fear index has fallen to 5, approaching the extreme levels seen after the FTX collapse.

Core logic interpretation:

1. Maximum pain point pull: The current prices (BTC $68,000, ETH $1,979) are significantly below the maximum pain point, which may motivate some sellers to push prices towards the pain point before expiration to render their options worthless. However, this usually only causes short-term volatility.

2. Sentiment has reached a freezing point: A fear index of '5' often indicates that market selling pressure is nearing a phase of exhaustion, and any positive catalyst could trigger a sharp rebound, provided that macro selling pressure eases.

3. Continuous capital outflow: The ETF recorded a net outflow of $1.5 billion in a single week, which is the core fundamental factor continuously suppressing prices.

My strategic perspective: Around the expiration date, market volatility is likely to spike. However, the expiration of options itself does not change the trend; it serves more as an 'accelerator' rather than a 'steering wheel'. The real turning point still requires observation of whether ETF capital flows can reverse, or if daily charts show signs of volume-based support. Until the trend is clear, it is still best to observe more and act less.

When the market is dominated by derivatives settlement and capital flow data, I am even more convinced that long-term value derives from those who are detached from short-term speculation and rooted in the real world of construction. Just like the @Max Charity community, no matter how the market fluctuates due to options expiration, its offline educational promotion and charitable network construction has never been interrupted—this continuous action based on real demand is the ultimate confidence to face all market noise.