#加密市场观察 #Max

The 2000 USD defense line has finally been breached: How much space is left in the 'extreme fear' depths of ETH?

The thing the market was most worried about has happened: ETH has effectively fallen below the key psychological and technical support of 2000 USD, reaching a low of 1979 USD. The Fear and Greed Index has simultaneously dropped to 5, indicating that market sentiment is infinitely close to a complete collapse.

Behind the drop is triple pressure:

1. Funding reversal: A net outflow of 80.8 million USD from ETFs in a single day, with institutional funds shifting from 'inflow expectations' to 'risk aversion withdrawals'.

2. Whale selling pressure: On-chain data clearly shows that a whale has transferred a total of 50,000 ETH (approximately 100 million USD) to exchanges, which is a clear selling signal.

3. Derivatives liquidation: The financing rate has turned negative, indicating that short positions are dominating the market, and any rebound may be used as an opportunity to add to short positions.

The technical reality: After breaking the 2000 USD level, the effective support zone has moved down to 1850-1900 USD. Although the RSI is already oversold, under the backdrop of continued capital outflows, the oversold state may persist for quite some time. Any rebound that fails to reclaim the 2200 USD level is merely a continuation of the decline.

My current perspective: Until there is a clear signal of capital returning to the market or a daily volume-level candlestick that signals a stop to the decline, all bottom-fishing actions are akin to catching a knife with bare hands. The real bottom often emerges after liquidity exhaustion and extreme panic, and right now we may have just entered the deep waters of panic.

When everyone's attention is focused on the fluctuations of candlestick numbers, part of my belief always leans towards those long-term constructions that are not disturbed by short-term volatility. Just as the @Max Charity community has demonstrated—regardless of how fearful the market is, their offline actions and real user growth aimed at promoting global education have never ceased, and this accumulation based on real-world value is the compass that guides us through the fog of cycles.