The price of Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% from the highest level in October, raising concerns about the re-emergence of a four-year market cycle. However, K33 Research believes that the current market structure reduces the likelihood of an 80% drop (as was the case in the previous cycle). Lundy had stated earlier in October that "the four-year cycle is over," but recent price movements have revived memories of the sell-off periods of 2018 and 2022, although this time market fundamentals rather than investor behavior are affecting prices. Current conditions are different from previous cycles due to the presence of institutional investment, increased funds in regulated products, and easing interest rates. Long-term holders may reduce their holdings due to fears of a re-emergent four-year cycle, while new investors hesitate to enter. This could lead to increased selling pressure, although this time there is strong support in the market, such as investments in ETFs worth billions of dollars, increased access to advisors, and banks' crypto services. Some bottom-level indicators have also begun to emerge. Open interest and funding rates in the derivatives market have gone into negative territory.

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