Check the Bitcoin cycle var chart – the pattern is frighteningly repeating:


🔶 2018 bear: Decrease -86% from ATH → painful bottom.
🔶 2022 bear: Decrease -78% from peak → FTX collapsed, everyone thought 'crypto is dead'.

🔶 Current cycle (2025-2026): From ATH ~126k (October 2025), BTC has dumped to around ~64k today (2/6/2026, low hit ~60k then slightly rebounded) → drawdown approximately -49% to -50%

But if considering some long-term chart cycles, many analysts are highlighting a -72% drawdown equivalent to the previous phase – and the scenario of 35k (or lower) could very well happen if the bear drags deeper.

Why is the market on “red alert”?

🔶 Just broke strong support at 70k → extreme sentiment shift, FUD pouring in (geopolitics, macro debt wall, tech sell-off spreading to crypto).

🔶 Liquidations cascade, ETF outflows, sentiment hits extreme fear – just like the “end stage of the bear” in history.

🔶 Data from the past: Most investors only truly believe in a bear market when prices have dropped significantly, and the real bottom usually comes when everyone gives up.

No one knows exactly where the bottom is – but clearly:

🔶 We are at the most fearful stage of the cycle (Fear & Greed low, capitulation vibes).

🔶 Long-term decisions (accumulate selectively, hold firm) are more important than short-term emotions (panic sell).

🔶 Those who can lock up capital through 2018/2022 will win big – a similar pattern is unfolding.

Personal view
🔶 Bear case: Macro is still bad (Treasury refunding, yield spike) → likely to test 50k-60k or lower.

🔶 Bull case: This is the final shakeout, a quality dip for institutions to accumulate (Binance SAFU buying BTC is providing underlying support). If the Fed pivots or liquidity returns → strong rebound in 2026.

🔶 The reality: The crypto cycle always teaches the lesson of “excess” – oversold then often overshoot rebound.

What do you think at this moment?

🔶 Opportunity to accumulate in this fear zone?

🔶 High risk, wait for confirmation of the bottom?

Comment now: Are you holding BTC or reducing your position? Which coin do you trust the most during the bear?

#BTC #bitcoin #CryptoBears #BinanceSquare
$BTC $ETH $LINK
DYOR – The market does not reward the weak. Stay strong mentally, this stage is often before the biggest wave!