๐ Key CPI Statistics (June 2025)
**Headline CPI (All items):**
โข Increased 0.3% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted), up from +0.1% in May
โข Annual rate: +2.7% year-over-year, up from +2.4% in May
**Core CPI (ex. food & energy):**
โข Rose 0.2% month-over-month, following +0.1% last month
โข Annual rate: +2.9% year-over-year
Major Contributors:
Energy: +0.9% (gasoline +1.0%; electricity +1.0%)
Food: +0.3% (food at home +0.3%, food away from home +0.4%)
Shelter: +0.2% โ the largest single factor in the monthly rise
**Annual changes by category:**
Food: +3.0% YoY
Core (ex food & energy): +2.9% YoY
Energy: โ0.8% YoY (despite the monthly spike)
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๐ Analysis & Market Impact
Inflation Resurgence: June's 2.7% annual CPI increase is the highest since February, reversing a cooling trend . Particularly notable are tariff-related price jumps in durable goods and energy. Services inflation remains brisk in areas like medical care and rent .
For the Fed: This inflation uptick makes an early interest-rate cut unlikely. Markets now price only about a 61% chance of a cut in September . Federal Reserve Chair likely to monitor summer CPI carefully .
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๐ Whatโs Next?
Next CPI release: for July 2025, scheduled on August 12, 2025, at 8:30โฏa.m. ET
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โ Summary Table
Measure June 2025 May 2025
Headline CPI (m/m) +0.3% +0.1%
Headline CPI (YoY) +2.7% +2.4%
Core CPI (m/m) +0.2% +0.1%
Core CPI (YoY) +2.9% โ
Energy (m/m) +0.9% โ1.0%
Food (m/m) +0.3% +0.3%
Shelter (m/m) +0.2% โ
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๐ฎ Bottom Line
U.S. inflation is picking up, with June marking the highest YoY CPI since February.
Core inflation remains strong at ~2.9%, fueled by services.
The Fed will likely hold off on rate cuts until itโs confident inflation is sustainably on target.
Watch for July's report on August 12 for clues on trend continuation or easing.
#CPIdata #CPIweek #BTC120kVs125kToday
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