Bloomberg Analyst Admits Miscalculation: Why Bitcoin ETFs Didn't Bring the Calm He Predicted
Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, just delivered a candid public reassessment of his Bitcoin ETF forecasts—and it’s a must-read for anyone trying to understand today’s volatile crypto market.
In a recent post on X, Balchunas stood by part of his original thesis: Bitcoin ETFs have indeed attracted a stronger, more institutional investor base than many anticipated. That much, he says, remains true.
Where he admits he got it wrong? Market volatility.
Like many analysts, Balchunas originally believed ETF inflows would help stabilize Bitcoin’s price action. The logic was sound: replacing speculative, hyper-active retail traders (think pre-FTX era) with longer-term ETF investors would smooth out the waves.
So why are we still seeing such intense price swings?
Balchunas points to two key factors he underestimated:
Concentrated Selling from Early Holders (OGs)
ETF demand met a wall of supply from long-term holders deciding to take profits at higher price levels. This created persistent selling pressure that ETFs alone couldn’t absorb.
The takeaway?
Bitcoin’s identity as a high-volatility, high-risk asset isn’t going away anytime soon. While ETFs have matured the investor profile, they haven’t eliminated—and may even have amplified—underlying market dynamics driven by early adopters and cyclical momentum.
This kind of reflective analysis is invaluable. It reminds us that even the most data-driven predictions can miss nuanced on-chain behaviors and holder psychology.
DYOR No Financial advice!
What’s your view?
Are Bitcoin ETFs changing the market in ways we’re not yet fully seeing—or is Bitcoin’s volatile nature here to stay?
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